The second wave will hit like a hammer in 4-6 weeks. How do I know? In March, I made the trade of a lifetime by watching the first wave come, and seeing that everyone was willfully ignorant about the consequences. I am seeing the same thing happening again.

In March, our govt implemented a “cargo cult lockdown”. This means they went through the motions of doing a lockdown, but missed the important aspects. This resulted in a moderately effective, economically ruinous lockdown.

After a month, conservative protesters rallied to stop the unjust lockdown. People’s lives were being destroyed. I personally know someone who couldn’t say goodbye to his sibling because of the quarantine.

These protesters were vilified by the media for selfishly endangering society. Media speculated about an impending second wave, because of these protesters. This would never come, because only a small fraction of society protested.

Another month passed, and we saw George Floyd murdered by policemen. A wave of liberal protesters, this time more numerous and cheered by the people who vilified the previous protestors. Again, speculation about this causing a second wave. Again, not enough protestors to see it.

Some people will start to wise up. This whole thing seems fishy. Seems there is a political aspect to these lockdowns. No spike in cases is observed and this whole thing seems like a hoax. Everyone is going crazy from being locked up. Most people don’t even know someone sick.

This virus doesn’t care. Talk to my cousin, a pulmonologist in NY who had to turn away patients due to lack of beds. Talk to my uncle, who just got off 3 weeks of oxygen. We did a cargo cult lockdown, so the virus didn’t really go away. In many states it is at record levels.

So when people start pouring back into bars and churches and nightclubs... when people start having parties again, this virus will be ready to spread as if the lockdown never happened. But people are not going back into lockdown, and we haven’t been given the tools to stop it.

This time, young people won’t care about getting infected. Hell, once they get over the mild illness, they can go back to life as usual. There is no will to stop it. And once hospitals across the country are overrun, people will shrug their shoulders and say goodbye to grandma.

But the US will be permanently scarred. This country that used to be a beacon of how to solve hard problems, will have failed where most succeeded, seemingly confused and impotent. This virus is real, but our country is still unwilling to acknowledge it.

So once rising case loads become obvious, which will be in less than 6 weeks, I am shorting the market hard, again. You usually don’t get two once-in-a-lifetime trades. But it’s looking like I will get two in one year.