NEW
Internal pharma industry memo obtained by BBC:
No Deal Brexit stockpiles “significantly reduced and/or used up entirely” by Covid pandemic.
Warns Govt with “less or 0 product to allow for stockpiling” needs to now start & pay for one & ferries/ planes

On @bbcr4today shortly

NEW:

Internal medicines industry memo says because of combined pandemic/ No deal challenge Government “themselves” (unlike last year) needs to buy/store own stockpile, reflecting “broader list of critical products” for Covid/end of Brexit transition period:

& needs to start now

Memo also says Government must clearly signal in the next few weeks it will be reoperating No Deal emergency freight services and planes for No Trade Deal Brexit to deal with “border disruption expected at the end of transition period”

* interesting, as although things are a bit quiet on this front, Government had been saying that they dont see why there should be the same disruption for No Trade Deal, as they had made contingencies for, for No deal. This suggests a vital industry assumes same order of issue

As result Covid-19 challenges “buffer stockpiles” of “finished product and raw materials” both for business as usual & EU exit significantly reduced and/or “used up entirely”...preps for end Brexit transition period “must complement plans” to secure supply of Covid therapeutics

BUT stockpiling “increasingly challenging” as there is “less or zero product available in the market to allow for stockpiling across a broad range of products... partly because of export bans, countries building own stockpiles already

And even if they start stockpile build immediately, which they will have to, memo says wont be fully covered due to ongoing pandemic supply problems, and the fact Christmas “is worst time of year to ask companies to increase their stockpile levels” due to seasonal flu etc

Needs to start straight away, says memo:

Government needs to “develop with industry a new list of critical products” which “reflect challenges posed both by end of TP [Brexit Transition Period] and continued response to COVID-19”...

& lastly, but very importantly under subheading “Areas where clarity urgently needed”

While welcoming DHSC close engagement on No Deal memo says “however, urgent clarity still needed on implementation of Northern Ireland protocol and trader readiness requirements”.

Govt spokesman said “robust contingency plans are in place” as “Government continues to prepare for all scenarios” and stressed it wanted a free trade deal based on “friendly cooperation between sovereign equals”.

managed pandemic so far, but stark warning on international supply lines:

“We would warn against any drastic policies mandating wholesale changes to global supply chains as this could fundamentally disrupt the supply of medicines for the NHS and patients in other countries”...

Official comment from ABPI...

pandemic pressures likely to continue for months, and this reinforces why UK-EU deal “essential”

Will work closely with government, stockpiling and “uninterrupted flow” of good is “critical”

Waiting for NI guidance “essential” for medicines supply

Couple of reflections -

Industry neither privately nor publicly actively calling for transition extension - accepting Government policy at face value to leave transition period at end of the year, even in say pandemic 2nd wave... and that requires contingency action now...

Leaves Government needing either to
- deny No Deal style plans required because “Australia-style arrangement” border disruption limited

- accept & embrace they are, double down on preps, partially as negotiation tactic again, but to have to do so in middle of pandemic. Eg army?

Speaking off record to big players in industry - they say they recognise the picture, have already made multi million investments to shift production/ processes to maintain EU approvals, and that these Covid/ Brexit interplay issues more about mass generics supply...

And also I should say FT public policy editor @pmdfoster put a differently sourced version of parts of this story, on his front page last week. https://www.ft.com/content/4611bf7d-c749-4cfd-bf7c-7a5e2967f9f7