Read on Twitter
"No deal" food shortage fears in "news" yet again (with no doubt the usual 'project fear' retorts). Let's see if I can *again* (as an ex logistics freight forwarding customs 30 years - dare I say it - expert) demonstrate how without transition this will be a *fact* not a "claim"
...At the moment there are about 50m customs declaration clearances pa where relevant supply (of customs clerks/infrastructure/holding areas) meets demand. Out of the CU ('no' deal or indeed *any* FTA) there'll be an additional approx 250m customs declaration clearances
(incidentally here alone costing UK far more than its annual EU membership fee) with expanded infrastructure/space reqd (**not inc our new internal GB/NI customs border**) Dover doesn't have enough space for life outside SM/CU; Holyhead no space at all. HMG has set up an acadamey
to train '50,000' new recruits. Under normal circumstances it takes about *18 months* to *adequately* train 1 clerk to be left to work independently. The work load will also cause many of these novices to not last the course; churn/staff turnover, having to start training again
& again with nobody having the spare time to train will be a major problem. In Switzerland with *experienced* supply there's a mistake ratio on EU customs entries of about 20%!! (imagine the ratio with vast majority novice entries). On last no deal threat HMG planned TSP entries
to prioritise flow over control (now dropped owing to presumably it being a smuggling nirvana & fact EU could not legally reciprocate?). By now maybe I'm painting a clear enough picture..& this before we start on the SM/SPS issues and the fact the two way cross channel/Irish sea
flow will be hugely disrupted as ferries will not be commercially viable unless full. Basically present RoRo trade flows will constrict, back up, stop. Hauliers (those that survive) as in year 2000 'fuel strikes' will increasingly not start their journies just to be sat in queues
EU hauliers/drivers will not want (no FOM/be able) to come if internal market/CU alternative work...The growing shortages will be compounded by panic buying in what will be a supply issue (Covid-19 is a demand issue)...I and others have been warning of this for 4 years.
People with my freight forwarding background/customs I know are stockpiling food & medicine for what will be an up to 6 months, then stuttering ongoing, logistics 'not quite mad max dystopia' (but damn close enough) chaos
To combat the undoubted continued I'm just a 'remoaner' spreading more "project fear" retorts I should probably add I am now (semi) retired abroad ...so no personal skin off my nose if UK wants to commit hari-kari. I'll be watching events unfold safely from afar
& yes as here when starting my career we always had the tiered experienced gurus to call upon inc the old sage at the very top..UK will now have a legion of floundering distraught novices with all that experience dissipated away to the far extremes/retired https://twitter.com/simonhoustoun/status/1269617414767095808
& yes again pertinent to previous tweet there's so much I haven't even started on NTBs..mainly to do with the SM of course, but here probably an even greater argument for staying in the CU (processed food industry esp in for a nightmare rocky ride) https://twitter.com/DNewtonC/status/1269638216090562560
It does seem there is a combination of ministers not *wanting* to hear (and NDAs) https://twitter.com/mf5725/status/1269951223224053761
Still as pertinent https://twitter.com/kirmber2/status/982289251642609664
Although the video doesn't emphasise that of the 10,000 trucks there can be tens or hundreds of individual consignments on each truck, each needing that (out of CU) customs declaration... and a safety/security declaration (remember 'decs' not 'checks') https://twitter.com/RHANews/status/1269920738187902981?s=19
I have got a little frustrated with brexit breaking "news" these last four years. Again yesterday with another reported piece of so called such.... https://twitter.com/vivamjm/status/1270483248951578625?s=19
So latest: HMG reverting to its import flow over control (smugglers nirvana) 'here we go again' proposal. Won't work if not circulatory or having those '50,000' adequately trained customs staff (stil novices of course) in situ. Anything but ask for transition extension obviously
Btw.. point I've often made to "businesses have had 4 years to prep"..until last GE all options still on table..& who can afford to build/invest, recruit, train & "pay" its share of '50,000' customs staff to do nothing (not needed) until day one out of EU? https://twitter.com/RHADuncanB/status/1271195186127831041
Ominous...well...more ominous than it already is of course over the CHIEF/CDS crossover implications (upthread) on top of having a bunch of novices making entries @MonkdWallydHonq @jordonfreight @LeftPeggers @MichaelAodhan @Freight_NI https://twitter.com/macswineyspeaks/status/1271415418746556416?s=19
