1. Recent discussions about public opinion and the government's coronavirus communication strategy have had me wondering whether it is fair to blame the country's leadership for the ongoing surge of Covid cases in Pakistan. What exactly does the data show us?

2. The only real source of information we have on public opinion regarding the coronavirus comes from attitude surveys conducted by @GallupPak. There have been 5 waves of the survey so far; the first was conducted in early March, and the latest published results are from mid-May.

3. A caveat: Opinion polling is, at the best of times, an inexact science. The quality of the information you get depends on your sample, the validity of the questions you ask (do they accurately capture the data you want?), the measures taken to control for bias), and so on.

4. Due to these and other considerations, survey results should probably be interpreted with caution, perhaps serving as general indicators rather than hard facts, especially when you lack other comparable data points.

5. Nonetheless, what do Gallup Pakistan's surveys show us? Let's start with this interesting statistic, showing that an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis appear to have confidence in the government's handling of the coronavirus crisis.

7. From this it might be tempting to conclude that the ire directed towards the government on social media is unfair However, things become more interesting when looking at this through a comparative lens; Pakistani satisfaction with the govt is one of the highest in the world.

8. The data here is in line with what other polls of global opinion also show (see attached numbers from Ipsos), so is it reasonable to say that Pakistanis are more satisfied than the citizens of, for example, Japan, where the virus has been successfully contained?

9. Perhaps more context can be provided by another interesting finding; apparently, a majority of Pakistanis find the threat of Covid to be exaggerated. This is in stark contrast with the rest of the world (figures from Gallup International attached).

10. Is there a link between high levels of satisfaction with the Government response to Covid and the perception that the threat of the coronavirus is exaggerated? Assuming that the data is correct and there is reflective of public opinion, how can we interpret these results?

11. There could be a number of explanations for these for these findings. For one, it might simply be too early to accurately gauge public perceptions of the threat/government response since the virus has only just started to surge and start having a more visible effect.

12. Perhaps a valid comparison can be made here with Brazil, where the Bolsonaro regime, which actively downplayed the threat of Covid and scoffed at preventive measures, saw a precipitous drop in its approval ratings once the virus started to surge.

13. With that in mind, could it be the case that absent a clearly visible threat, official attempts to downplay the possible effects of Covid might help explain both satisfaction with the government and the belief that the coronavirus crisis has been exaggerated?

14. Certainly, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the government has not done a particularly good job of communicating the dangers of the coronavirus. As many have documented already, leaders from the PM downwards have repeatedly downplayed the seriousness of the threat.

15. Recent examples include politicians comparing Covid to the flu and ignoring social distancing. Indeed, even the Prime Minister has been reluctant to follow his own government's directives regarding the wearing of masks in public.

16. This has all been accompanied by the repeated insistence that the country is ready to open up for business as usual. In contrast with almost every other part of the world, Pakistan has lifted restrictions on markets, weddings, barbers, and so on despite a surge in cases.

17. This creates the perception that the threat of the virus is not that great and that the government's handling of the crisis is satisfactory. Indeed, consider how so many Pakistanis are aware of both the Tiger Force and Ehsaas payments. Official messaging can clearly work.

18. That people do listen to the government can also be seen in how some did follow guidelines about Taraweeh prayers during Ramzan (although we'd also have to know how many would have stayed at home to pray even without Covid, and how many actually complied with the directives).

19. Interestingly, many Pakistanis appear to have adhered to social distancing directives. However, visible evidence on the country's streets suggests that this finding should be taken with a grain of salt. (One possible question: how did respondents interpret the word 'meet'?).

20. What do learn from all of this? For one, it will be interesting to see if public perceptions shift as the virus continues to surge. Data from other parts of the world suggests that they will and that dissatisfaction will understandably grow.

21. Second, the disconnect between perceptions and reality - in terms of the threat posed by the virus - might have something to do with the government's communications strategy. After all, other parts of the world did take the issue seriously before it became a visible threat.

22. The South Koreas, Japans, Canadas, and Vietnams of the world took preventive measures and communicated the urgency of the problem to their citizens BEFORE Covid could surge. Where governments did not do so - The USA, Italy, Iran - the crisis worsened significantly.

23. The power of coherent and effective messaging from the government should not be ignored. After all, remember that Pakistan is also a country where as shown by the Wellcome-Global Monitor survey from 2018, there is also considerable distrust of doctors and health authorities.

24. The government can and should take the lead in effectively communicating the risks of the coronavirus to the public. Conflicting and contradictory statements breed both confusion and a false sense of complacency.

25. Adding to this thread. The latest Gallup poll shows attitudes have indeed started to shift as the virus spreads: Fewer Pakistanis now believe the threat is exaggerated, and there has been a 15% decline in those who think the government is doing a good job controlling Covid.