If your rental contract if up for renewal, start the bidding at over 10% off imo
Just as a taster of what's going on here's an ex-Airbnb flat (as pics prove) in London zone 1 with the landlord resorting a 3-week free rent offer to get long-term renters in https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-90566822.html
It's been on the market since March, initially at £2,200. Yesterday the asking rent got cut by 17% from that to £1,825.
Anyone can keep tabs on these price cuts by using the free [though I've happily donated] Property Log extension for Chrome. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/property-log/jccihedpilhidcbkconacnalppdeecno/related?hl=en-GB Here's what Property Log tells you for this property.
Your landlord will obviously tell you that your property is different. But one veteran landlord has admitted he expects rents in London to fall 10%-15% this year.
In fact he told the Financial Times this yesterday in a Q&A with readers https://www.ft.com/content/65ff4517-91d2-4b5e-b2dd-2f66656c2d73
"I expect rents will fall overall by 10 to 15% in London by end of year, compared to Jan 2020."
Chucking in another example. Covent Garden = £3,500 in February, apparently, but £2,500 now. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-88381973.html
St Paul's. Not sure what 'Flexi Rent' means? Maybe 'We've had to cut the rent by a third'? https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-92154884.html
Worth noting that the Bank of England’s recent reforms to force buy-to-let lenders to use more prudent lending criteria will allow most landlords to dramatically reduce rents and still remain profitable
Someone's resorting to the red SALE! stickers https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-92810864.html
Another ONE MONTH FREE RENT offer - but actually the bigger sign of trouble for the landlord is their explicitly stating that they're now offering short leases https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-93250595.html
(Uncle is an institutional build-to rent company which normally prefers long leases, as per its company FAQs)
Here's a residential management company with 29% of its monthly rent in arrears last month and payouts to investors suspended for six months https://www.propertypartner.co/blog/ceo-update-may-2020/
Newbuild opposite Houses of Parliament. Down 29%. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-90427766.html
Pimlico studio flat nearly under £1,000 per month, probable ex-Airbnb https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-80694730.html
"Special lockdown price". Spitalfields, down 28%. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-78807136.html
Some perspective on the glut of rental property in central London. Amount of property "to let" in SE1/Southbank area is rising to almost double its recent average
More data. Prime central London rents down 3.4%, stock on the market up 29%. From LonRes.
Also some choice quotes from estate agents on the ground in London in today's RICS market survey https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/knowledge/research/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey-may-2020.pdf. For example:
- Rental levels are under pressure
- Rents are down for sure also. Makes Brexit look like a picnic! 1/x
- We are seeing some tenants fall into arrears. We have also seen a high number of European tenants give notice to vacate. There are presently high levels of available rental stock in our market.
- new instructions on the up, while tenant numbers appear to be slowing 2/x
- In Central London, we’ve had lots of enquiries from potential tenants but negligible commitment. 3/3
More data: in London rents on renewal alone were down 4.7% year-on-year in May (imagine how bad new lets will be?) according to Hamptons https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-79863046.html
Tourists won’t bite – renters’ delight
Zone 1 rents falling – landlords’ warning
What do you do? Cut rents in central London. Zone 1 for the price of Zone 2.
So have the properties I've listed in this thread been let yet? The scores on the doors:
Let agreed - 9%
Delisted - 24%
Still available - 67%
More perspective on the glut of rental property in central London. Amount of property "to let" in SE1/Southbank area is now over double its recent average
Zone 1 for the price of Zone 2
More data. Over the past 10 days on Zoopla.

Number of London properties to let or let agreed:
⬆️ by 7,041 (6.1%) to 115,712

Average per-week asking rent:
⬇️ by £15 (2.4%) to £638
Marylebone, down 27% https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-81307582.html (yes, that really does say £42,250 per month)
More data. Amount of available rental stock on London's South Bank now 109% above its recent average
More data. Asking rent reductions in the wider area covered by the SE1 postcode appear not to have peaked yet.
To add, data from @GShoneEG shows the whole of central London is experiencing a surge in the amount of property needing to be let https://twitter.com/GShoneEG/status/1278276689131376646?s=20
👀👀 NHS/Key worker discount on what looks to be a former Airbnb near Holborn 👀👀 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-81555508.html
Elephant, down 10% and with a 2 weeks rent free offer https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-80144482.html
More data, from Goodlord, on June rents in London:

Average rent down 2.8% year-on-year to £1,576.

Average void days up 64% year-on-year to 23.
Thousands more flats coming to London https://twitter.com/peterproperty/status/1280082642701029376?s=20
Lambeth North, down 10% to £1,434, with no rent to pay for first two weeks https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-69482058.html
More data. In the past 3 weeks:

Number of properties to let in London has increased by 15,000 to 123,230 (includes let agreed).

Average London asking rent has decreased by 4% to £628 per week.

Source: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/to-rent/ 
Greater London rents down 1.7% annually.
South East England rents down 1.3% annually.
Source: HomeLet https://homelet.co.uk/homelet-rental-index
More data - the London rental market is seeing the weakest tenant demand relative to landlord supply since 2016, according to RICS.
Surveyors' views on the London market are mixed
However, the overall picture favours further falls in rents. The question 'do you expect rents in your area to be up / down / unchanged over the next 3 months' produced the biggest number of 'down' answers of any quarter since the survey started in 2014.
Anyway, back to documenting significant rent reductions in Zone 1. Chelsea(-ish) down 20% to £2,058 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-88213874.html
Soho, apparently "one of London's most talked about new buildings ... with hotel style service", down 31% to £5,352 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-90748136.html
This seems to have slipped under the radar - estate agent forecasts UK rents to drop 5-7% and London rents to drop 10-12% in 2020. Source: https://chips.chestertons.com/assets/downloads/www-che/68092/8da65df2c02cf008a3d2ed992b33a739/The%20Impact%20of%20Covid_19%20on%20The%20Property%20Market%20_%20June%202020.pdf
It's a month old, but interesting: "Lockdown caused the number of new tenancies in central London to fall by around 54% between March and May and the result of this was 29% more properties available on the market at the beginning of June compared to the same time last year."
"The fall in demand reflects a combination of factors:
– The overseas student market has dried up as students no longer know if they will be able to study in September
– Corporate relocations are very low as companies exercise tighter cost control and homeworking has increased
– Existing tenants delaying committing to new leases as they consider cheaper accommodation options in light of falling rents
– Tenants renegotiating lower rents with their landlords to avoid the hassle, cost and risks associated with moving.
The imbalance between supply and demand and the caution on the part of many tenants means that landlords are now having to discount their properties by 10-15% in order to secure a tenant, or risk facing a lengthy void period with no rental income."
A 10-second video on falling rents in London ⬇️⬇️
Rule of thumb seems to be that rents drop ~1% for each ~3% increase in properties available
Would have been nice if we had come by these cheaper rents by, you know, a competent national government having got a lot more housing built, rather than blundering into a global pandemic and a recession ...
Back to the reductions. 27% off the rent for this large adn totally new studio on the South Bank, where the LL's service charges costs - pool, spa, concierge, gym (who knows if they're usable atm?) - are prob around £400 per month. But there's a catch ... https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-71749245.html
... "This [£1,950] is a reduced asking price due to the current situation. The original rent for this flat is £2,700. The owner is looking for a flexible contract with a 6 months break." 🤔🤔🤔
A good deal for the right person though and definitely cheap for the building
Farringdon, awkward 2-bed, down 27% to £1,560 after three months on the market https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-91186811.html
Oval, 1-bed with small garden, down 24% to £1,700 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-70786188.html
Studio a stone's throw from Piccadilly Circus, down 29% to £1,604 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-93357368.html
Elephant, 2-bed reduced 6% to £1,993 with 'one month rent free' offer https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-80500393.html
More data - average monthly rent for a room in Q2 2020 according to http://Spareroom.co.uk :

London down 7% annually to £725

Rest of UK up 2% annually to £489

Source: https://www.spareroom.co.uk/media/rental-index
Annual room rent decreases by London postcode area:

EC down 15% to £844

WC down 14% to £931

NW down 11% to £722

W down 9% to £782

SW down 8% to £770

N down 7% to £694

E down 5% to £685

SE down 1% to £708

Source: https://www.spareroom.co.uk/media/rental-index
So I reckon that makes average room rents in the following London postcode areas cheaper than they have been at any point since at least 2014:

Some trivia for the Sarf London massive ...

The SE postcode area is no longer Inner London's cheapest, having just gotten more expensive than E and N London in terms of average cost to rent a room
Chelsea/Pimlico no man's land studio down 33% to £1,300 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-68680611.html
Oval, 3-bed house with garden down 21% to £3,142 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-90663323.html
Southbank, 2-bed with a 3 weeks rent free offer down 15% to £2,250 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-94771613.html
Quick graph to comment on whether the stamp duty cut has revived the sales market in my area ...
And some more data on falling rents, from LCP, which is a prime central London property adviser. It says properties let to new tenants in June attracted on average 14.7% less rent than the previous tenancy.
Also some Q2 data from Rightmove:
- London av. asking rent down 0.6% yr on yr
- London available rental stock up 41% yr on yr "fuelled in-part by a surge in long-term rental supply from the curtailed holiday short-let market"
- Ex-London av. asking rent up 3.4% yr on yr
Back to the reductions. Hatton Garden 1-bed with balcony down 21% to £1,842 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-69064089.html
Waterloo 2-bed with garden down 20% to £2,492 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-93570689.html
Southbank Tower 1-bed down 20% to £2,600 (probably a new low price for this development) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-73660913.html
Barbican tube, 2-bed flat down 23% to £2,162 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-79266907.html
June data from LonRes on prime central London:
- rents down 4.6% year on year
- supply up 53% year on year
- "prospective tenants have choice and are in a strong position ... negotiating an average of 7.1% off initial asking rents, up from 4.5% a year ago"
Would normally filter stuff like this out as even the price it's come down to is ridiculous - but here you go, here's a "micro studio" near Blackfriars that was £1,600 (Were they ill?), down 19% to £1,300 (Are they high?) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-94379408.html
"Do you hate everybody and also yourself? You do? Well come and live in my £1,600 per month micro studio!"
You can follow @DanFareyJones.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: