I tried to refrain from posting this out of fear of sounding too much like I was fear mongering.

Some of you know me on touch bit more personal level and have had private conversations w/me regarding this matter @basisspread @Barton_options @VolCurve @OffTheRunTrades

The matter is what to anticipate is going to happen next. Months ago, I tried to repeatedly point out we are in the process of being completely destabilized, a society utterly polarized now and driven to the cliff. My initial thought was COVID, alone would be the

catalyst for an unreal amount of civil strife. Martial law was/is inevitable. Politics is noise, find the needle in the haystack - what is being missed amid the chaos. What is the end goal if this is *organized chaos.

So for me there are three possible outcomes right now, that are predominantly coming to mind as we assess the situation. Either there has been a long-run game of destabilization and the cruise ship of drunks is now out of control, and thus we are near the end game.

1) This is the long ball game or chess match, Russia/China communist playbook being played out over the course of decades w/patience. We have been economically destabilized, completely divided as a society, and everything is failing fast. Civil disorder in buckets coming fast.

When the dust settles, if it is that game it will be when we are most exposed and exhausted and then they will roll right over us like a hot knife through butter. People will be too emotionally and physically exhausted. The supply chain broken, military assets faced internally

instead of externally. Rome self-repeating history.



2) The powers to be have had enough. Realized they lost control of the ship, seek to reclaim it and are driving us to the edge of the cliff - Democrat or Republican it does not matter.

Stop buying into this mentality that there is an objective right or wrong side. That is just the wheels on the bus being sold to you, such as any war we have been involved in over the last couple of decades on account of bringing Freedom and Democracy to countries that 'need us.'

It is a futile exercise and as stated I am guilty of letting my guard down, and expending emotional capital on what is right in front of me just as much as the next person.

The end goal, a reason to establish a stronger surveillance state. That is theory/possibility #2

Again, these are for the most part low probability theories, I do not buy into them 100% - but again, increasingly, as in my line of work, you have to think outside of the box and get creative with what are the possible tail outcomes, the unknown unknown parts of the distribution

Because, as quoted before, a lot of times bad shit happens as a result of a failure of imagination. This, I think, would suffice as one of those results. Tail risk eliciting more tail risk and this thing is on the verge of just flat out going off the charts.

3) This all blows over, somehow, miraculously, without any major conflict, invasion, etc. And we can all laugh and say how crazy I was. However I act on instinct as I try to thread the needle through this complexity mindfuck of an alternate universe we are clearly bearing witness

That stated - I've said you don't want to be anywhere near a major city. If you are still in one and you are having a deer in headlights moment, thinking this will blow over, take pause. Ask yourself the following simple question:

What is my risk? It's simple - I view all of my decisions in life and trading the same way - what is my upside and my downside in this moment. What do I have to gain and what do I have to lose?

If police and national guard cannot get this under control fast, it will only get worse. And exponentially worse. When the supply chain is even more broken with 40 million unemployed and they have burned down the food stores and gas stations - where do you think

they will go next? House to house. Who will man the power stations/pipelines and make sure the grid is working?

So I urge you to conduct that self-assessment and come to a reasonable conclusion of what is worth more to you.

Your material items as you fight hoodlums with no morality or fear of rule of law as your children and loved ones scream in the background. Or you and your family alive, slightly hungry, less material belongings, but alive.

As when COVID kicked off, I would urge people that are in the major hot spots, to consider your options quickly. The window of opportunity to properly prepare with additional food, water and weapons/ammo has passed or is closing quickly. The window to find a more suitable, safer

stronger community is quickly closing.

Make plans and execute. Do not hesitate. Do not be that deer in the headlights. If you (or better yet, me) are wrong, fine. What did you lose? Couple weeks. Some material goods. You appear to have acted out of an abundance of over-caution.

But what happens if the worst is to come. What is your downside. I would not want to stick around and find out. That's how people blow up in our business. When they say ahh it will never happen, or that's crazy! I'll just ride out the position, or martingale on it.

How many times has that worked out well.

Thank you for attending my crazy End of the World TED talk.

Reading @PatMcNamara65 's Sentinel years ago had a very strong effect on me as far as how I viewed and assessed risk, not to mention building process and a better me to better live my life and defend my family.