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(REUTERS) The Eagles were the first punk records, top Californian musicologist says.
OK, now that I've got your attention, you can see how easy it is.
Take any claim you like, and you can find some yahoo that will make it.
So it's not exactly news, right?
Then what should you make of a story like this?
Take any claim you like, and you can find some yahoo that will make it.
So it's not exactly news, right?
Then what should you make of a story like this?
In our course and book on @callin_bull, there some basic questions we always recommend that you ask.
Who is the person?
How does he or she know it?
What are they trying to sell you?
You may not be able to answer all of them, but you'll probably get some insight by trying.
Who is the person?
How does he or she know it?
What are they trying to sell you?
You may not be able to answer all of them, but you'll probably get some insight by trying.
Q: Who is this person?
A: Alberto Zangrillo is a professor and hospital director in Lombardy. He's well cited and seems to have a strong scholarship record.
So far, so good.
A: Alberto Zangrillo is a professor and hospital director in Lombardy. He's well cited and seems to have a strong scholarship record.
So far, so good.
Q: How does he know it?
A: He appears to be reporting his own experience from taking swabs of patients. But there's no evidence that this was part of a formal study of any sort, and he offers no figures, no data, and no writeup. It seems to be an off-hand remark and little more.
A: He appears to be reporting his own experience from taking swabs of patients. But there's no evidence that this was part of a formal study of any sort, and he offers no figures, no data, and no writeup. It seems to be an off-hand remark and little more.
Q: What is he trying to sell you?
A: It's unclear why, but it's pretty clear he's trying to sell you a story about how the country was shut down longer than it needs to be, and that they need to open up immediately.
(Terrorizing the country? 33,000 Italians have already died.)
A: It's unclear why, but it's pretty clear he's trying to sell you a story about how the country was shut down longer than it needs to be, and that they need to open up immediately.
(Terrorizing the country? 33,000 Italians have already died.)
In summary, the source is seemingly legitimate (just as Michael Levitt and John Ioannidis are) — but it's not clear that he has strong evidence for his claim, and it does seem that he has an agenda.
So how seriously should we take it?
So how seriously should we take it?
Another rule that we teach for spotting bullshit is this:
If something seems too good—or too bad—to be true, it probably is.
This would be really good if it were true, and it's quite different from anything else we've heard from anywhere else.
If something seems too good—or too bad—to be true, it probably is.
This would be really good if it were true, and it's quite different from anything else we've heard from anywhere else.
It turns out that there are really good reasons to consider Dr. Zangrillo's story unlikely.
I've written a long thread on this; I won't repeat it here. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242314692514598912
I've written a long thread on this; I won't repeat it here. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242314692514598912
So this brings us to a third useful maxim:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Certainly the claim that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is mellowing out and going away on its own is an extraordinary one.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Certainly the claim that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is mellowing out and going away on its own is an extraordinary one.
So what is the evidence?
Do we have an identified mutation? Not all.
Clinical study? Apparently not.
Hard numbers for viral titre? No.
The evidence is that Some-Guy-Says.
That's it. Some guy says.
Do we have an identified mutation? Not all.
Clinical study? Apparently not.
Hard numbers for viral titre? No.
The evidence is that Some-Guy-Says.
That's it. Some guy says.
Now in this case, you could he's not just some guy. He's a respected academic and a hospital director. Fair enough.
And if his claim was an ordinary one, that might be enough for me.
But it's not.
And if his claim was an ordinary one, that might be enough for me.
But it's not.
Instead, @Reuters has given us a headline and story that push unsubstantiated claims with major public health and policy implications, during a highly politicized pandemic.
This is not what a news outlet should be doing. Especially not one with a reputation worth upholding.
This is not what a news outlet should be doing. Especially not one with a reputation worth upholding.
UPDATE: @Reuters has followed up with story about how that health officials strongly disagree — yet the news out conveniently omits to mention that it played a major role in spreading this misinformation in the first place. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-transmission/who-and-other-experts-say-no-evidence-of-covid-19-losing-potency-idUSKBN23832J
Perhaps more problematically, no correction notice has been added to the original story. This may be a tricky issue in journalistic ethics since it was bad judgment to publish but not false reporting. Still, some sort of notice seems warranted.
Meanwhile Dr. Zangrillo seems to be walking back his previously comments to something bordering on defensible.
Finally, I did an imperfect job of answering the question "Who is this person"? It turns out that Dr. Zangrillo was Berlusconi's personal doctor, which seems potentially relevant to the issue at hand.
This is apparently the Clementi et al paper that Berlusconi's personal doctor was citing as evidence that the coronavirus has "weakened".
Anyone have a copy? Odd to see just an abstract released. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341901435_Lower_nasopharyngeal_viral_load_during_the_latest_phase_of_COVID-19_pandemic_in_a_Northern_Italy_University_Hospital
Anyone have a copy? Odd to see just an abstract released. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341901435_Lower_nasopharyngeal_viral_load_during_the_latest_phase_of_COVID-19_pandemic_in_a_Northern_Italy_University_Hospital
