1. It is far too soon to predict the death of cities.
2. Yes cities have their challenges from the Covid crisis & the fallout from it.
3. Every time pundits predicted the death of cities - 9-11, 2008 etc - they were wrong ...
4. Perhaps my own biggest error was to consistently under-predict the veracity & ferocity of the urban revival in the wake of these events.
5. It is unlikely that recent urban unrest will staunch the urban revival. The biggest factor is likely to be the fiscal fallout from the Covid crisis ...
6. My sense is this will hit hardest at smaller cities, especially Rustbelt cities, whose urban revivals were more fragile to begin with.
7. The way I like to think of it is that the Covid crisis is accelerating family formation moves to the suburbs. Nothing new about that ...
8. Moves that were being planned & would have occurred over say 1,3,5 years have been compressed into 2 or 3 months.
9. But cities will still be attractive to young people.
10. With commercial & retail real estate weakened, & demand from families & wealth pied a terre owners declining, cities may have a window of opportunity where they become more affordable.
11. Though I said much the same in 2008 - that NY & San Fran had opportunity to reset themselves - and they simply became even less affordable.