1/ #CycloneNisarga is about to scrape around Mumbai on 3rd June. If that happens, it will be the first-ever cyclone in recorded history to hit the Maharashtra coast in June. Will it bring in floods too?

2/ IMD has forecasted a moderate cyclone strengthening up to 100 kmph. It's not just the direct impact of the winds that we need to worry. Forecasts indicate heavy rains up to 200 mm, and INCOIS has forecasted storm surges with waves of 3–6 meters as Nisarga approaches landfall.

3/ If this happens over Mumbai during the high tide time on 3rd June morning—the rains and storm surge and the tide can work together to flood a city that is already clogged. All these events overlap as a "compound event" on a rising sea level in the background.

4/ Natural defenses like mangroves and rivers have been squeezed out of the city for expanding roads, buildings, and the airport. Hence, when heavy rains lash over a city like Mumbai which has lost its flood plains and defenses, the flooding gets prolonged there too.

5/ A recent assessment by IIT-B colleagues point out that Mumbai floods are more of a management problem. We need early warning systems that integrate the multiple climatic elements and human demographics and land use — and we need flood management policies to be implemented.