When there's covid/division/distraction, wolves pounce. When there's mere division, the wolves will pounce because the president isn't bombing enough. When its unipolarity and domestically calmer, mustn't be complacent because wolves are irrational rogues. Unquenchable alarm. https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1267408629050871809

I mean, how is this supposed to work regarding core US commitments? Clashes in US cities so Russia rolls into Latvia & NATO territory? North Korea attacks South Korea? US nuclear deterrent deemed a mere bluff? Washington decides it doesn't care because of domestic problems?

Unless a "challenge" is defined as any aggression anywhere. But thats what happens when you define your interests in limitless, imprudent ways.

Sorry, typo there.

An interesting test would be to test on previous cases of being divided with urban clashes. 1966-8, say, or 1992. Did rivals calculate that it was the time to strike? Doubtful.

As a realist I have no trouble agreeing the world is dangerous. But should see rivals as real states with sense of their own interests and survival, capable of minimal deterrability. Not one-dimensional, stupid killer breed, attacking at first whiff of blood.