Final *central* government revenue numbers for fiscal year 2019-20 for India released on Friday by Controller General of Accounts (CGA). Some confusion on their interpretation. Four take-aways 1/n

1. CGA numbers less reliable gauge of underlying economic activity because center's GST revenues are volatile, reflecting center's policy on sharing them with states. More reliable is a broader measure of *national* taxes: overall GST (center & states) plus all central taxes 2/n

2.Annual growth in this broad measure of taxes was minus 1.6% (nominal) and minus 6.1% (real). Excluding corporate taxes-which saw large rate cuts-growth was 3.2% (nominal) and minus 1.5% (real). *Real* tax growth is one macro-proxy for underlying *real* economic activity 3/n

3. Revenue numbers were weak even pre-COVID although a little less so. Growth in broad measure of taxes for 11 (pre-COVID) months in 2019-20 (April-Feb) relative to same period last year was 0.7% (nominal) and minus 3.8% (real) 4/n

4.Overall GST revenues (center plus states) grew 3.8% (nominal) and minus 0.9% (real) in FY20. Large decline in corporate tax collections (minus 16.1% nominal and minus 19.9% real) because of weak economy and rate cuts. n/n