As promised, I wanted to illustrate the binary interaction between the remnant #Amanda vortmax & the larger Central America Gyre ( #CAG).

The 12z GFS tracked the vortmax making a near full cyclonic loop around the CAG, going from the East Pacific, to Bay of Campeche & back again!

It is important to look at the upcoming evolution of ex- #Amanda's vortmax in the context of a well calibrated ensemble (ECMWF EPS).

Ensembles are roughly split between a stronger/north track into the Gulf of Mexico vs. a weaker/south track similar to the 12z GFS forecast.

For now, this is not an imminent US threat. Just keep an eye on things and we should have a much better idea by mid-week.

Different story in Central America (esp. #Guatemala, #ElSalvador, #Nicaragua, SE #Mexico) where flooding & mudslides will continue. https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1267182722478247936?s=20

Thread Sources:

1) 12z 31 May GFS forecast via @NOAANCEIclimate NOMADS: https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/ 

2) @Weathernerds fantastic EPS tracks site: https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html

3) @NHC_TAFB tropical weather discussions: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/312320_MIATWDEP.shtml?

4) My research on CAGs: http://www.pppapin.com/research_cag.php