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Do you have any curiosity whatsoever as to why "7 of the worst" are coincidentally our nearest neighbours?
Here's some advanced AI spin-bot discussion on it: https://twitter.com/jimfitzpatrick/status/1266714523957895170
Here's some advanced AI spin-bot discussion on it: https://twitter.com/jimfitzpatrick/status/1266714523957895170
Ireland is surrounded by Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands and UK.
112,631 dead.
Belarus is surrounded by Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland.
6,491 dead.
Similar populations in both groups, yet you appear to have no curiosity as to why one has 18 times more dead?
112,631 dead.
Belarus is surrounded by Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland.
6,491 dead.
Similar populations in both groups, yet you appear to have no curiosity as to why one has 18 times more dead?
"10 of the worst", in terms of deaths per capita:
Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy, France, Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Portugal, Germany.
I think if you pull out a map of Europe, you'll notice something.
Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy, France, Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Portugal, Germany.
I think if you pull out a map of Europe, you'll notice something.
I suspect reasons will be lost on you, if you respond to people who think Ireland did well, by accusing them of being paid to disagree with you.
I'll try.
Ireland's connectivity to UK, N. America and Western Europe is off-the-charts, relative to Eastern European countries.
I'll try.
Ireland's connectivity to UK, N. America and Western Europe is off-the-charts, relative to Eastern European countries.
1.9 million used Dublin Airport as a connecting route to North America in 2019.
Dublin's North American pre-clearance status has long been massively appealing to commuters from UK, Netherlands, continental Europe, who don't want to be held up when they land at O' Hare.
Dublin's North American pre-clearance status has long been massively appealing to commuters from UK, Netherlands, continental Europe, who don't want to be held up when they land at O' Hare.
The 5 most popular routes that use Dublin Airport as connecting:
Amsterdam to New York
Boston to Paris
Boston to London
Boston to Manchester
Chicago to London
I went and had a long look at how things are working out near all of those airports.
"Not good" is an understatement.
Amsterdam to New York
Boston to Paris
Boston to London
Boston to Manchester
Chicago to London
I went and had a long look at how things are working out near all of those airports.
"Not good" is an understatement.
On the American side:
Cook County, Illinois:
63,690 cases, 2,889 dead
Suffolk County, Massachusetts:
17,873 cases, 868 dead
-Cook County is the same population as Ireland.
-Suffolk County is smaller than Dublin at ~800,000.
Cook County, Illinois:
63,690 cases, 2,889 dead
Suffolk County, Massachusetts:
17,873 cases, 868 dead
-Cook County is the same population as Ireland.
-Suffolk County is smaller than Dublin at ~800,000.
On European side:
Hounslow has nearly 50% more cases per capita than Islington, which isn't easily explainable when you consider Islington has double the population density.
One difference between Hounslow and Islington is the fact Heathrow is beside Hounslow.
Hounslow has nearly 50% more cases per capita than Islington, which isn't easily explainable when you consider Islington has double the population density.
One difference between Hounslow and Islington is the fact Heathrow is beside Hounslow.
That picture is replicated in Dublin, Paris (Saint-Denis), London, Amsterdam, Boston, Chicago:
The areas closest to international airport hubs are getting smashed and that's not a coincidence to my mind.
When people move in an early outbreak, the virus moves with them.
The areas closest to international airport hubs are getting smashed and that's not a coincidence to my mind.
When people move in an early outbreak, the virus moves with them.
Not one country in Western Europe has fewer than 1,300 dead yet every single country in Eastern Europe (bar Russia) has fewer than 1,300 dead.
If aptitude/incompetence of politicians mattered more than movement of people, this crazy disparity by location would be impossible.
If aptitude/incompetence of politicians mattered more than movement of people, this crazy disparity by location would be impossible.
Ireland are between a rock and a hard place in terms of early movement of people.
We had 160,000 people from other countries using Dublin as a gateway to-and-from NY, Boston, Chicago *every month*.
That's great for the Irish economy when they buy a sandwich in Dublin Airport.
We had 160,000 people from other countries using Dublin as a gateway to-and-from NY, Boston, Chicago *every month*.
That's great for the Irish economy when they buy a sandwich in Dublin Airport.
Not so good in the early stages of a pandemic.
Genomic analysis of early covid19 strains in Ireland didn't all point to Italy - many pointed to Boston and Birmingham (could be imported or exported).
One compelling discussion point is the connectivity in Dublin Airport.
Genomic analysis of early covid19 strains in Ireland didn't all point to Italy - many pointed to Boston and Birmingham (could be imported or exported).
One compelling discussion point is the connectivity in Dublin Airport.
IMO the decimation of Western Europe has a lot more to do with movement of people, than Eastern Europe having genius politicians.
15 million more people pass through Dublin Airport annually than Warsaw Airport.
On any given day that's 41,000 more people in Dublin Airport.
15 million more people pass through Dublin Airport annually than Warsaw Airport.
On any given day that's 41,000 more people in Dublin Airport.
Moreover, the demographics of the people doing the moving is a factor.
Much has been made of Ireland's very young population, as if that was some sort of advantage we started off with.
It's actually an enormous *disadvantage* in the early stages of an outbreak.
Much has been made of Ireland's very young population, as if that was some sort of advantage we started off with.
It's actually an enormous *disadvantage* in the early stages of an outbreak.
Younger people tend to be more mobile, more close contacts, play more sports, socialise more often and have better immune systems than very elderly people do.
Having a younger population in an epicenter like Western Europe, is close to the worst case scenario for early spread.
Having a younger population in an epicenter like Western Europe, is close to the worst case scenario for early spread.
Whereas somewhere like Greece, outside epicenter, with a high % of elderly people, is much more favourable in the early outbreak. Elderly translates to less mobility of people and less spread of a virus.
Even Italy contained it for 22 days after their 1st case January 31st.
Even Italy contained it for 22 days after their 1st case January 31st.
The neighbouring German states of Hesse and Thuringia are having very different outcomes.
Hesse has a younger population and nearly double the cases per capita than Thuringia, who have an older population.
Hesse also has Frankfurt Airport, a huge international airport hub.
Hesse has a younger population and nearly double the cases per capita than Thuringia, who have an older population.
Hesse also has Frankfurt Airport, a huge international airport hub.
Experts often dismiss airport closures as fantasy-land but the sad irony is the "common sense solutions" were all implemented by Italy - and they all failed.
They quickly stopped flights from China in January and introduced temperature screening in Rome/Milan airports. Failed.
They quickly stopped flights from China in January and introduced temperature screening in Rome/Milan airports. Failed.
Ireland could have stopped flights but we'd have needed to stop them from Amsterdam, Boston, Heathrow, Manchester and Rome before Feb 18th - an aeon before public support existed.
Even then it wouldn't work, virus would toddle in on different flight or walk across the border.
Even then it wouldn't work, virus would toddle in on different flight or walk across the border.
Anyway.
Our connectivity to UK and US put us in a vice grip.
Our connectivity to Western Europe squeezed it.
Given all of those circumstances, minor miracle we've fewer than 4,000 dead - and by miracle I once again mean the Irish spirit in washing their hands and staying home.
Our connectivity to UK and US put us in a vice grip.
Our connectivity to Western Europe squeezed it.
Given all of those circumstances, minor miracle we've fewer than 4,000 dead - and by miracle I once again mean the Irish spirit in washing their hands and staying home.
Take one look at Suffolk County to see how much of a miracle it is.
We could - and should - have expected 2,500 dead *in Dublin alone* given that's roughly the per capita experience of Chicago, Boston, Paris, London and Amsterdam, whose outbreaks very closely resembled Dublin.
We could - and should - have expected 2,500 dead *in Dublin alone* given that's roughly the per capita experience of Chicago, Boston, Paris, London and Amsterdam, whose outbreaks very closely resembled Dublin.
If you want to believe the reason Albania "is doing better than Ireland" is due to their politicians being geniuses, and ours being useless, ok.
I personally find it hard to believe every politician east of Berlin is class and the ones in Western Europe are just plain shite.
I personally find it hard to believe every politician east of Berlin is class and the ones in Western Europe are just plain shite.
Find it a lot easier to believe a virus spread by (often asymptomatic) people moving around, might be worse in places where a lot more people actually moved around.
Don't think it takes much movement of brain cells to scream "spin!" at anyone with a different opinion, either.
Don't think it takes much movement of brain cells to scream "spin!" at anyone with a different opinion, either.
