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Many here asked what worries me most about India's #COVID19 trajectory based on tests data
Answer is look at the number of tests needed to confirm a positive case, call it TPCC (Tests Per Confirmed Cases).
TPCC not increases as testing increases instead it decreases!
#Thread
Answer is look at the number of tests needed to confirm a positive case, call it TPCC (Tests Per Confirmed Cases).
TPCC not increases as testing increases instead it decreases!
#Thread
I have discussed about this concept in my latest blog post. The link to my blog post is available in bio.
For the ones, who do not have the patience to read, let me give you the screenshot of the relevant part
For the ones, who do not have the patience to read, let me give you the screenshot of the relevant part
Now, let us look at the data as on 1st April
India done 42778 tests and identified 1642 positive cases, ie, a meagre 32 tests per million population.
The TPCC then was 26, means each 26 tests done were identified one positive #COVID19 case.
India done 42778 tests and identified 1642 positive cases, ie, a meagre 32 tests per million population.
The TPCC then was 26, means each 26 tests done were identified one positive #COVID19 case.
Look at where we are today from there!
Today we done a whopping 37,37,027 tests and identified 1,82,143 positive cases.
We now done 2774 tests per million of our population, this is around 86.7 times the tests done on April 1.
But our TPCC is reduced to 21 now from earlier 26
Today we done a whopping 37,37,027 tests and identified 1,82,143 positive cases.
We now done 2774 tests per million of our population, this is around 86.7 times the tests done on April 1.
But our TPCC is reduced to 21 now from earlier 26
I plotted the total tests done from April 1st to today and TPCC on a graph to grapple the situation prevailing.
This graph is telling, we are no way to control the #COVID19, our lockdown has very little impact, as we test more, we are identifying more!
This graph is telling, we are no way to control the #COVID19, our lockdown has very little impact, as we test more, we are identifying more!
The above represents the cumulative testing figures and cumulative TPCC.
But if you look at the daily testing figures and daily TPCC, a more fatal picture will emerge.
Yesterday we done 1,25,428 cases and identified 8380 positive cases, ie, TPCC is of yesterday is 15
But if you look at the daily testing figures and daily TPCC, a more fatal picture will emerge.
Yesterday we done 1,25,428 cases and identified 8380 positive cases, ie, TPCC is of yesterday is 15
How can I interpret this looking at the past week data?
If we do 2.5 lakh tests , instead of 1.25 lakh tests, we will have 16,500 daily cases!
If you have any doubt, look at the graph given above. We are on a falling trajectory of TPCC all along this month.
If we do 2.5 lakh tests , instead of 1.25 lakh tests, we will have 16,500 daily cases!
If you have any doubt, look at the graph given above. We are on a falling trajectory of TPCC all along this month.
If you are really interested to know how your State Governments are performing.
As most State Governments keep their historical data without purging , you can easily calculate these metrics to get a fair idea of your State Govt performance!
Leave that to you..home work ;)
As most State Governments keep their historical data without purging , you can easily calculate these metrics to get a fair idea of your State Govt performance!
Leave that to you..home work ;)
