1) Premier @francoislegault has often said he took a bet in reopening Montreal even though the city is still posting hundreds of #COVID cases. On Saturday, it looks like the odds may be favoring him. In this thread, I try to explain why, but warn against jumping to conclusions.

2) The epicentre of Canada’s #pandemic recorded its lowest number of #COVID infections in 59 days (!) on Saturday. (See the chart below). This has happened even though authorities boosted testing and allowed public gatherings of up to 10 people eight days ago. More on that later.

3) The number of #COVID hospitalizations has plummeted by 348 since May 19. Intensive-care unit stays are also declining. But nearly 1,200 people were still being treated on Saturday across Quebec, pressuring hospitals as they start ramping up long-delayed elective surgeries.

4) The city’s long-term care centres (CHSLDs) and seniors’ residences are grappling with 162 outbreaks, but that’s down from about 170 a week ago. And the total number of active #COVID infections dropped by 138 to 2,678 on Saturday.

5) At the neighborhood level, Hampstead (52), Montreal West (18), Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue (17) and Senneville (less than five) have not reported any new cases in at least three days. The #pandemic has also stabilized in five other boroughs.

6) Meanwhile, the #COVID death toll in Montreal climbed to 2,740, almost 500 more than the tally for all of Ontario. The dark blue line in the chart below suggests that the number of fatalities in the city is plateauing in the 20-to-50 range.

7) It will take another week or two to know whether the loosening of confinement measures may have backfired in Montreal or not harmed it at all. But community transmission remains a problem in Villeray-Saint-Michel-Parc-Extension, which declared 30 #COVID cases on Saturday.

8) After caring for #COVID patients since the beginning of March, the city’s nurses are burned out. Hospitals must clear a backlog of tens of thousands of surgeries. The hospitals also prone to outbreaks and some emergency rooms are overflowing once again. (See the chart below.)

9) Nearly every jurisdiction that's handled the #pandemic better than Quebec, like South Korea and Germany, has faced a #COVID resurgence to some extent after reopening. If I were a gambling man (which I’m not), I would not have taken the Premier's bet. End of thread.