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My take on the SAGE meeting minutes, published after a FOI request
Firstly there are huge gaps between evidence provided and policy decisions throughout
Resulting in huge policy leaps from meeting to meeting with no evidence as to why
#COVID19 #Lockdown #coronavirus
Firstly there are huge gaps between evidence provided and policy decisions throughout
Resulting in huge policy leaps from meeting to meeting with no evidence as to why
#COVID19 #Lockdown #coronavirus
04.02.2020
"It is possible that school closures would be less effective than in previous epidemics
SAGE heard that NERVTAG advises that there is limited to no evidence of the benefits of the general public wearing facemasks as a preventative measure."
"It is possible that school closures would be less effective than in previous epidemics
SAGE heard that NERVTAG advises that there is limited to no evidence of the benefits of the general public wearing facemasks as a preventative measure."
18.02.2020
"Chloroquine represents a potential treatment that is low cost and widely available. However, SAGE is unaware of any
clinical trials assessing its effectiveness"
Chloroquine is not mentioned again from this point
"Chloroquine represents a potential treatment that is low cost and widely available. However, SAGE is unaware of any
clinical trials assessing its effectiveness"
Chloroquine is not mentioned again from this point
25.02.2020
"The risk of public disorder in the UK – defined to include opportunistic crime, community tension and rioting – is assessed to be very low in response to an epidemic"
"The risk of public disorder in the UK – defined to include opportunistic crime, community tension and rioting – is assessed to be very low in response to an epidemic"
25.02.2020
"SAGE discussed a paper modelling four non-pharmaceutical interventions: university and school closures, home isolation, household quarantine and social distancing, including use of interventions in combination"
#Lockdown looks like it came from study
"SAGE discussed a paper modelling four non-pharmaceutical interventions: university and school closures, home isolation, household quarantine and social distancing, including use of interventions in combination"
#Lockdown looks like it came from study
27.02.2020
"SAGE reviewed Covid-19 planning assumptions and advised that, in the reasonable worst case scenario, 80% of the UK population may become infected, with an overall
1% fatality rate in those infected"
"SAGE reviewed Covid-19 planning assumptions and advised that, in the reasonable worst case scenario, 80% of the UK population may become infected, with an overall
1% fatality rate in those infected"
*. *. *
03.03.2020
"There is currently no evidence that cancelling large events would be effective"
This is when the behavioural science come to the fore on message and communication
03.03.2020
"There is currently no evidence that cancelling large events would be effective"
This is when the behavioural science come to the fore on message and communication
05.03.2020
"HMG should plan for the introduction of behavioural and social interventions within 1-2 weeks to contain and delay, depending on progress of the epidemic.
SAGE advised that the science supports a combination of case isolation and whole family isolation"
"HMG should plan for the introduction of behavioural and social interventions within 1-2 weeks to contain and delay, depending on progress of the epidemic.
SAGE advised that the science supports a combination of case isolation and whole family isolation"
05.03.2020
SAGE agreed there is no evidence to suggest that banning very large gatherings would
reduce transmission. Preventing all social interaction in public spaces, including
restaurants and bars, would have an effect, but would be very difficult to implement.
SAGE agreed there is no evidence to suggest that banning very large gatherings would
reduce transmission. Preventing all social interaction in public spaces, including
restaurants and bars, would have an effect, but would be very difficult to implement.
05.03.2020
Cocooning of older and vulnerable patients can start later, and would have to continue
longer, than other measures.
Cocooning of older and vulnerable patients can start later, and would have to continue
longer, than other measures.
10.03.2020
Social distancing ("cocooning") is for those 70 and over, as well as those of any age in vulnerable groups.
The modelling concludes that restricting this group to 70+, rather than 65+, would not cause a significant increase in numbers of deaths.
Social distancing ("cocooning") is for those 70 and over, as well as those of any age in vulnerable groups.
The modelling concludes that restricting this group to 70+, rather than 65+, would not cause a significant increase in numbers of deaths.
16.03.2020
"The science" suggests additional social distancing measures should be introduced as soon as possible
While SAGE's view remains that school closures constitutes one of the less effective single measure to reduce the epidemic peak,....
"The science" suggests additional social distancing measures should be introduced as soon as possible
While SAGE's view remains that school closures constitutes one of the less effective single measure to reduce the epidemic peak,....
....it may nevertheless become necessary to
introduce school closures in order to push demand for critical care below NHS capacity"
introduce school closures in order to push demand for critical care below NHS capacity"
23.03.2020
26.03.2020
Surveillance of internet use and mobile phones
"Prepare public for hospital admission" via Gov message
Surveillance of internet use and mobile phones
"Prepare public for hospital admission" via Gov message
29.03.2020
Beds not at full capacity
Beds not at full capacity
31.03.2020
No exponential growth
Bed occupancy not reached saturation
No exponential growth
Bed occupancy not reached saturation
07.04.2020
Transmission slowing
"Face masks would have minimal effect"
However a new study commissioned on masks, clearly somebody wants them
Transmission slowing
"Face masks would have minimal effect"
However a new study commissioned on masks, clearly somebody wants them
09.04.2020
Excess deaths linked to fall in GDP
The WHO concludes no conclusive evidence face masks are effective, yet still a push to find "evidence"
Excess deaths linked to fall in GDP
The WHO concludes no conclusive evidence face masks are effective, yet still a push to find "evidence"
14.04.2020
Deaths plateauing, transmission in decline
Evidence for masks is weak
Deep recession would have significant impact on health
'R' rate below 1 in the community
Deaths plateauing, transmission in decline
Evidence for masks is weak
Deep recession would have significant impact on health
'R' rate below 1 in the community
21.04.2020
Face mask evidence is weak but advise to wear them anyway
Vaccine immunity will differ from natural immunity
Face mask evidence is weak but advise to wear them anyway
Vaccine immunity will differ from natural immunity
28.04.2020
Virus could last on face mask for up to 7 days
Closer contact than 2m poses very low risk
Borders still open, imported cases could increase
Virus could last on face mask for up to 7 days
Closer contact than 2m poses very low risk
Borders still open, imported cases could increase
30.04.2020
Plan to vaccinate the entire UK population for flu this winter
Plan to vaccinate the entire UK population for flu this winter
01.05.2020
Concern over false negatives, despite "highly accurate PCR"
No concern over false positives
Behavioural scientists promote advise to "maximise adherence"
Concern over false negatives, despite "highly accurate PCR"
No concern over false positives
Behavioural scientists promote advise to "maximise adherence"
