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Is this a hare or a duck? Is $TSLA worth a trillion or is $TSLAQ a zero? Hyper bulls and bears are psychologically blind to the opposing side. I try to summarize the most common fallacies. A thread. Happy to discuss.
A) Bull fallacy: manufacturing is the easy part. Burning PV panels (Walmart), chipping paint, poor service show Tesla lacks in execution. Manufacturers have to excel at corporate culture and workers' incentives for this. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
B) Bull fallacy: car sales scale like software distribution. A software product does well as long as it gets more market share than burned customers. PayPal scaled this way but car sales cannot. Words make the round quicker than factories are build. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
C) Bear fallacy: Elon will be held accountable. EM is an excellent manipulative networker. He is a green fighter, freedom hero, Valley bro, defense contractor, dirty elite party boy, banks' debtor. Everyone knows he's to big to fall into the swamp. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
D) Bear fallacy: Elon's projects are not that hard. Despite some of his quite stupid claims, Elon's achievements as a CEO are impressive. His companies supply the ISS and put a million cars of a new brand on the road. Many others fail. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
E) Bull fallacy: stock price, bro. Markets can be very wrong. Tulips, Dot-Com, Enron. This time is different, or it isn't. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
F) Bull fallacy: trust in banking and media analysts. These guys are not respected on the street, relevant only to small money, others have in-house research. They go with a pump&dump herd and assure IB fees. Remember analysts in Dot-Com and AAA sub-prime ABS/CDO? $TSLA / $TSLAQ
G) Bull fallacy: weak competition. The Porsche Taycan is the most anticipated high-end EV of 2020. Audi's E-Tron is successful in Europe because it combines an EV with luxury interior. Tesla is far away from providing a mainstream luxury experience. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
H) Bear fallacy: user-friendly software is easy. Tesla's Cali roots help to attract software expertise, including supercharger functionality. Other OEMs seem to catch-up and copy, lately. But software usability partly explains the early success of the S3X Models. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
I) Bear fallacy: EV drivetrains are easy. Despite overstated range numbers, Tesla is among the leaders (or the leader) in EV drivetrain efficiency. Tesla highly prioritized this and some excellent engineers did a good job here. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
J) Bull fallacy: The miracle cash cow is coming. Software giants gain profits by unique market dominance. Cars, battery storage, PV are well established commercial fields with many capable competitors. The actual value of Tesla's "FSD" data is highly questionable. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
K) Bull fallacy: accounting is an irrelevant side show. Prudent accounting matters! A lot! Almost all frauds against the market/shareholders only work by faking accounting numbers. Tesla is suspiciously opaque. Thats why Chanos, MuddWat, Einhorn promote a short. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
L) Bull fallacy: ignoring best sales data. Price cuts, governments' car registration numbers matter. Most telling are markets with several quarters of strong sales history and no regional brand bias as in Cali, GER, FR, KOR, JAP. Look at Norway, non-Cali US, NL. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
M) Bear fallacy: This-never-happensnism. A lot of Elon's announcements reflect what he actually plans to do. He thoroughly beliefs he needs extra production capacity in EU. He believes he will colonize Mars. He is that confident in his judgement and a risk taker. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
N) Bull fallacy: This-never-happenednism. Remember 500k Model 3 a year, FSD in 6 months, 1k solar roofs a week, fully solar powered superchargers? You should because this drives the $TSLA price. In legal terms, this is indeed fraud by misleading shareholders. $TSLAQ
O) Bull fallacy: Elon is gonna fix it. He fixes problems at Tesla or SpaceX by raising money for shares. He wastes a lot of money for stupid endeavors. This is not a sustainable business model and he indeed has to show he can run a profitable large business. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
P) Bull fallacy: Tesla's products excite. Excitement is not key to a successful automotive business. These manufacturers went bankrupt or were acquired despite making iconic cars: Lamborghini, Jaguar, BMC (Mini), Bugatti, RR, Bentley. $TSLA / $TSLAQ
