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Amidst the upheaval & grief, I wanted to make sure we shine some light on a perhaps behind-the-scenes econ policy debate so here's a quick thread on “return-to-work” bonuses. WH, Congress are talking about giving the unemployed $$ when they take a job. 1/n
Sen. Portman recommends $450 a week for several weeks, which he says, “represents the amount that would be needed to make a person making the average minimum wage better off in the workforce than on unemployment.” https://www.portman.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senate-floor-portman-discusses-need-incentivize-returning-work-boost
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The logic underlying this policy is flawed. It presumes that if we just give people a bit more money once they find a job, that will make the difference between being unemployed and being back on the job. 3/n
Yet, pre-COVID-19, unemployment was at 3.5% and the share of the US pop w/ a job was 61.1%. In April, the unemployment rate was 14.7% and the share w/ a job was 51.3% – the lowest since WWII. 4/n
40M have applied for UI since the crisis began. Did 40M people wake up and decide, “nah, it isn’t worth it to go to work.” No. The coronavirus happened. And, policymakers failed to contain it (yes, that’s on you Trump admin). The US has more deaths 5/n https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=1&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The policy failures are too many to list in a tweet, but here’s some links 6/n https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/opinion/coronavirus-testing.html?searchResultPosition=6
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/34-days-of-pandemic-inside-trumps-desperate-attempts-to-reopen-america/2020/05/02/e99911f4-8b54-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/34-days-of-pandemic-inside-trumps-desperate-attempts-to-reopen-america/2020/05/02/e99911f4-8b54-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html
A return-to-work bonus admits pay is too low for too many. Fix this: Raise the minimum wage, expand tax credits to low-wage workers, encourage more workers to join unions, address rising economic concentration that limits options of where to work, paid leave,health care 4 all 7/n
And, there are options for employers to bring folks back on limited schedules. Short-time compensation allows employees to receive UI benefits for the hours their employer cuts. If you want employers to bring folks back, ramp up this program 8/n https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/stc_fact_sheet.pdf
Short-time compensation is the program akin to what other countries have used to keep unemployment low—even in the face of this crisis. We know it works. https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/economy/reports/2010/06/10/7944/policy-responses-to-long-term-unemployment/ @byheatherlong @JStein_WaPo @jdawsey1 9/n
Sadly, for right now, for too many workers it’s not safe to return to work. The CDC has put out guidelines for worker safety is in the COVID-era, including for offices, & rules like these must be adopted nationwide 10/n https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/health/cdc-coronavirus-offices.html?searchResultPosition=2 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/guidance-business-response.html
With over 100k souls lost to the virus, policymakers must prioritize worker safety b/c that’s what we all need in order to get back to work. And, let's not forget that everyone also needs to be safe from policy brutality. 11/n
