Read on Twitter
Is there really a bike boom right now? Gloriously, there are many many more people riding bicycles than this time last year. This is due to dearth of cars on lockdown roads, and the sunniest Spring since records began. But has there been a sales boom? 1/12
We don't know yet. Official sales stats are not in (I've asked for them to be sent when available) although, anecdotally, bike shops are reporting a roaring trade. However ... 2/12
This roaring trade could be because not all bike shops are open so those that are will be mopping up extra sales. Workshops are full, but that's also because bike shops can't afford to employ loads of mechanics on the offchance there will be a surge in demand for repairs. 3/12
Over the last 10 years bike shops have been reducing stocks of bicycles because they are expensive, awkward to display, and margins are wafer thin. When a bike shop reports being out of stock that's not surprising cos they don't tend to hold that many bikes anyway. 4/12
Don't get me wrong. Something amazing *is* happening out there, and I love all of the reports of bike shops saying they're run off their feet but, to be a real boom, it needs to be sustained for some months, and there needs to lots of unit sales at the end of this period. 5/12
The 1970s bike boom lasted for 4 years, and sales — in the US at least — have never been bettered. I wrote about the 1970s bike boom here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/05/01/bicycling-booms-during-lockdown-but-theres-a-warning-from-history/#1607ff5c41cf More than 83,000 people have read that story. 6/12
Bike industry execs are happy with the boom but not deliriously so. The industry has had a tough 5 years so any uplift is going to seem miraculous. Without sales of e-bikes these last few years and many companies would now be pushing up the daisies. 7/12
One exec told me he's expecting that when all of the furore settles down the industry may have witnessed a 10% uptick. Fantastic to have but not really in "boom" territory. 8/12
The boom was wholly unexpected — supplyside stocks of bikes have been low in last few years so any small surge in demand would naturally see rapid stock depletion. 9/12
It will be interesting to see the actual sales totals. That said, it's brilliant to see the huge surge in cycle use so that's where the real boom is, on the streets not really in the shops yet. (I'm thinking in whole industry terms, not spikes in individual bike shops.) 10/12
I find it amusing and sort-of pleasing that Amazon is not holding any stock of my "Bike Boom" book of 2017. It's sold out, and sold out recently because of the you-know-what! 11/12
I'm not fully pleased because you only sell what's available. Perhaps there is a huge pent-up demand for bikes (and books about bike booms) but I'll be waiting for official sales stats before stating that #BikeBoom2020 is a retail reality. 12/12
