If I have time, I’ll write this on Medium, but in case I don’t…

I’m worried about three COVID-19 moments.

1. June

Schools going back, likely bump in R. SAGE scientists & @IndependentSage both saying too soon w new infections still at 8000 per day. Contact tracing not fit for purpose yet. Cummings Affair means lockdown is leaky.

I think we might appear to get away with it, at least for a bit, but if so we’ll essentially be creating a reservoir of infection for later in the year. Suspect government will be unwilling to reimpose lockdown in full in the heat, especially if cases rise only a little.

2. September

This is where it breaks. People keep talking about resuming after the summer, but there’s simply no reason to imagine we’ll be able to. Combo of other respiratory bugs w COVID-19 makes transmission more likely (sneezing etc) as people spend more time indoors.

I don’t understand why there’s this buzz of “schools will resume properly” in autumn. If we were crushing the curve, maybe, but we’re not. September is when it’s likely to get hard.

It’s *possible* we might also start to see the Oxford vaccine, or some therapeutics. But…

… absent those in huge quantity and well-distributed - which tbf seems more likely, at the most rapid, in 2021 - September will usher in a hard, dark winter.

And 3. January/February

This is the one that actually scares the shit out of me. Potentially: the 2nd wave cresting, and the UK falling out of the transition with the EU. COVID-19 plus shortages of vital medicines, reagents, equipment, and… you know… some food.

There is a narrow pathway from where we stand - but a real one - to a partial (please) infrastructural collapse in early 2021. It ought to be negligible, but with this government I’m not sure it is.

So: sorry to be a downer, but I really think we need to be looking longer term than the likely mess of June, and preparing for some rough seas over the next 6-9 months.

I *do* believe medical science will get us out of this hole.

One example: https://www.distributedbio.com/covid19 

But we can make things better or worse with the policy choices of states. We all know this one: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdown-lateness-excess-deaths-correlated-chart-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

I think in November we’ll be looking at a similar graph about loosening lockdowns too soon, or crucially in the wrong ways. I suspect requiring face masks outside may well be a simple factor, for example.

I think (skim-reading the work of people who actually have a clue) that we’ll kick COVID-19’s arse in 2021, and that doing so will radically upgrade our ability to cope with future novel viruses. There are also possible benefits to how we live from this strange, bad moment.

Our job - the job of every society on Earth, and of humans as a society - is to get there. We just have to live our way to the future, and bring our friends.

So we in the UK need to get through those three pinch points by making the smart choices.

If the government can’t do that - and the evidence is that they can’t - and they won’t step down - then we need to start thinking individually and collectively. We have to leave the government behind.

I don’t know how to do that, but I don’t want to be talking about a death toll of 150k at Christmas, either.

/ends