Hard to over-state what an astonishing step this is. An "export cap" is absolutely new in the internal UK movement of students./ https://twitter.com/SeonagM/status/1266661542403149824

Practical effect hard to predict: if the cap is set at current levels, then not much, perhaps - if students are less keen to move any distance that may already cause a drop in Xborder movement this year. It's introducing it as a *principle* which is the immediately dramatic move/

Great recent work on Xborder movement was done recently by Susan Whittaker - summarised here (FAO @wonkhe @SeonagM @seanjcoughlan)/ https://www.ed.ac.uk/education/rke/centres-groups/creid/news-events/news-archive/news-archive-2017/creid-briefings-35-n-36

In brief: Scotland: lots more arrive than leave, ins and outs both rel privileged; Wales: huge Xborder exchange, net importer, movement more socially mixed, lots to do with proximity/geolgraphy; NI - net exporter; England - pretty much in balance, but largest *numbers* in/out./

But also movement not generally volatile. Imposing a cap on numbers leaving just to prevent a spike in numbers looks unnecessary. So this is either panic, symbolism or (if the cap is set below current levels of movement) a sop to univerisities in England to boost numbers there./

If there's any aspect of the last of these going on, Univeristies UK is about to face the largest challenge of its existence and purpose since 1999./

My first guess would be panic, however, with a bit of symbolism on the side.

Putting up a deliberate internal barrier like this in the UK is unprecedented in the operation of UK university policy since it began to take its current shape after 1945./

Differential fee policy was of course the first shock to a uniform system - but though English students coming here are charged more than Scots, they are not charged more than they would be if they stayed in England - there is no £ sign at the border./

There is of course such a sign at the border for Scottsih students going the other way - but not for those moving out of Wales. The lack of fully portable fee funding for Scots is an issue which persistently fails to set the heather on fire here and is the closest precedent./

But even that is not an overt border control and Scots wanting to go south can still take out a full fee loan - the impact on movement appears likely to have been largest on those who are least confident about using the loan scheme./

So I am just going to end this thread by repeating - for followers of devolution and HE this is a seriously big story - even if its practical impact may turn out to be limited.