So, I've been down a strange wormhole the past few weeks, involving 228 pages of reports from a cholera outbreak in 1947 in the UAE (then the Trucial States) to see what it could teach us about #Covid19.

The answer? Still not sure. But it was interesting.

Strap in - a thread

The year was 1947. Egypt was experiencing a cholera outbreak that yielded 20,804 cases and 10,277 deaths – a 50% mortality rate.

The epidemic reached neighouring countries like Syria and Palestine. August 1947 was also when India was partitioned; cholera swept through there too

The Trucial States (later the UAE) were under British rule. There was a major RAF outpost in Sharjah.

The first case of cholera arrived in Dubai on November 4, 1947.

The report of the infected case outlined a servant dying after vomiting and purging.

"He looked dried up"

The British freak out, anticipating an outbreak similar to Egypt.

Patient's movements for the past 10 days are analysed, as are their contacts' (early contact tracing)

Anyone the patients had come into contact with, as well as the patients, are isolated (early quarantine)

Country borders are closed. Planes are grounded. Mandatory quarantines are introduced. The British go door-to-door around houses in Dubai vaccinating people. Daily case counts are sent. Cholera inoculation certificates are introduced.

This 1947 report of people flagrantly ignoring rules is superb:
"America Oil employees went to Kuwait from Egypt by air, stayed there, 'passed a day or two' and then flew on to Baghdad where they did not reveal they had recently been in Egypt and stayed at a hotel in quarantine"

Also - fake news was apparently a problem, even then. Cause the BBC announced the outbreak in a news report and left everyone wondering where the hell it came from.

Cause at the time, the outbreak hadn't actually eventuated. There was only a handful of cases in the UAE.

The explanation? "Wasn't me!".

"The news about cholera was not sent by anyone from the Trucial Coast to BBC. On the 4th of November, the Officer Commanding, Royal Air Force, Sharjah, wired to Royal Air Force Headquarters informing them of the outbreak of cholera in Dubai....

...as reported to him by the Medical Officer and it is very likely that the Royal Air Force or others passed on the information to BBC."

In the end, the outbreak never eventuated. It was an efficient response.

So, could the 1947 cholera outbreak have informed our response to 2020's Covid-19 pandemic?

It certainly laid the foundations for our healthcare system and large-scale disease outbreak response.

Anyway, if you liked that thread, there's a whole 2000-word magnum opus where that came from.

Read more here: https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/what-quarantine-was-like-in-1947-the-fascinating-story-of-the-middle-east-s-cholera-outbreak-1.1026271#7