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NEW @instituteforgov paper: Implementing #Brexit: securing more time. We know @GOVUK does not want to extend the Brexit transition period - but what if businesses needed more time to adapt to new UKEU relationship? THREAD https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-securing-more-time
1. Why more time: UK/EU have a *lot* to do in v little time. Negotiate UK-EU deal, ratify the deal (EU needs weeks), implement NI protocol ( https://bit.ly/2XgZFxM ) *and* business need to prepare for new UK-EU relationship - whether talks succeed or not. All before 31 Dec 2020.
2. Take business: there will be friction whether there is a deal or not so @michaelgove right that business shd start preparing for life after 2020. But COVID squeezing capacity. Bus also don't want to start stockpiling until they have certainty. Been there before, it's costly
3. Still business: What's more, impact of COVID on supply chains is unclear. Even if they wanted to, much harder for businesses to predict just how much they shd stockpile.
In short: very likely that businesses will need more time to adapt to new UK-EU reality: deal or no deal
In short: very likely that businesses will need more time to adapt to new UK-EU reality: deal or no deal
4. Easiest/safest option for more time: use provision in withdrawal agreement (WA) before 30 June. Terms cannot be imposed, UK decides & agrees. UK cd opt out of EU programmes (which cd mean less ÂŁÂŁ to EU budget). Cd ask that extra time is used *only* for preparation, not talks.
5. But @GOVUK has said it does not want an extension. But what if it changed its mind after 30 June deadline had been missed?
6. In theory, there are 4 other options:
- Try to amend the end date of transition period in WA;
- Create a brand new transition period;
- An implementation phase as part of final agreement;
- An implementation phase to prepare for no-agreement (WTO terms)
- Try to amend the end date of transition period in WA;
- Create a brand new transition period;
- An implementation phase as part of final agreement;
- An implementation phase to prepare for no-agreement (WTO terms)
7. But all 4 are risky and there are many, MANY legal/political challenges - *especially* for the EU (if you want to find out more, read "potential obstacles" for each option in our paper).
8. Goodwill: even an implementation phase (time for both sides to phase in, gradually, their new relationship) is complicated. For the EU, it wd require it to do something for which there is no precedent at a time when EU is focusing on COVID, MFF, etc - just another headache
9. Goodwill: There are also many reasons why securing more time would be challenging, politically, for the UK. Wd mean UK (not just NI) is subjected to some EU rules for longer - and potentially ECJ. If talks collapse, goodwill on both sides will be in short supply.
10. But... when there is political will, there is a legal/political way. So if @GOVUK did decide it wanted more time (again does not have to be for negotiations!), it should read our paper: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-securing-more-time
11. Thanks to all those involved but especially the co-authors: @jameskkane & @HST_Etherington
