My thoughts on expected price correction in realty sector -
The sector has been going through troubled times even before COVID-19 wherein Tier II/III developers have heen facing funding issues due to NBFC crisis. Let's understand which developers used to resort to NBFC funding?
Majority of the developers, to whom banks were averse to lending. What happened after the IL&FS fiasco? RBI mandated NBFCs to reduce exposure to real estate sector, so the tap closed for weaker developers who anyway faced funding issues earlier.
At the same time, since NBFCs want to keep growing, they started approaching bigger developers (who largely have bank funding) and offered to lend at much competitive rates.
In short, improved funding access to stronger developers (total contrast to weaker players who face liquidity crunch like never before - Not fair? But such is life!)
What happens when a developer doesn't get funding?
The construction stops and the developer faces double whammy - No new sales and the risk of existing sale cancellations, which might happen in current scenario too.
So, coming to what can happen going forward when people are predicting massive price corrections.
Let's understand first when do prices correct across the markets? When there's a big mismatch between the demand & supply. In residential sector, people refer to high unsold inventory to prove their point about impeding price correction.
How does unsold inventory work? Whenever a project is registered, it's units are added to the unsold inventory. I feel many projects which have been added in last 2-3 years by weaker players might not even hit the market or get delayed, thanks to the liquidity crisis and COVID19.
What does it mean? Unsold inventory might not be the best way to gauge the market because it clearly won't give a true picture. So, while there will be a delay in demand (or demand destruction in few cases) due to the impact of COVID19 on the economy,
but at the same time supply in the system will also be impacted. Few developers might launch new projects cautiously in the short term, but there will be many who would face tough time completing existing projects (forget new ones) in the short term.
So while there could be project specific slump sales, market wide price correction seems unlikely to me.

P.S. - Views are strictly personal.
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