Shifting gears back to Invest #92L in the open Atlantic. Convection has become more concentrated w/ an associated lighting burst to the north of earlier observed vortmax.

Starting to look more like a STC/TC as the vortex pinwheels around the upper-level cutoff low to its SW.

The most aggressive guidance of #92L over the last 24h was the 00z ECMWF. It seems like it correctly predicted the current convective evolution, complete with a mesovortex becoming the new center from the broader circulation.

Compare this to the 00z GFS which did not produce a mesovortex embedded in the larger circulation & perhaps related, it did not produce a convective burst near the center.

From a qualitative sense, the +24h forecast of the ECMWF looks structurally more realistic than the GFS.

The ECMWF ultimately develops a small but well defined vortex akin to a TC/STC, while the GFS does not.

Will be interesting to see which model ends up being right!

While #92L may not be a completely closed circulation yet, #ASCAT also appears strongly support the ECMWF solution with a well defined mesovortex near the convective plume. https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1266538919665053698?s=20