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1. Happy Friday! So, this week I published two pieces on the state of climate policy & politics in the US. They are long, and I know a buncha you lazy goobers aren't going to read them, so I will summarize them in this here thread ... which will probably also be long.
2. After the 2008-2010 climate bill fiasco, the climate movement splintered, everyone full of resentment & mistrust toward everyone else. On strategy (pass bills in states? fight pipelines?) & policy (carbon tax? fracking ban?), there was was very little agreemeent.
3. @yayitsrob captured this state of affairs quite well in this 2017 piece: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/there-is-no-democratic-plan-to-fight-climate-change/543981/
4. However, around 2018, climate policy development started busting out all over. States where Dems took over passed policy. Every Dem presidential candidate developed a robust climate plan. Dems in both the House & Senate developed climate bills. And most of all ...
5. ... behind the scenes, green groups, environmental justice groups, & unions ramped up a furious level of consultation & discussion, with multiple groups, coalitions, tables, confabs, etc. The idea was to determine what kind of climate policy commanded some degree of conensus.
6. The Green New Deal debuted first & set the tone. It was somewhat light on concrete policy, but irrevocably changed the parameters of the conversation. Also worth mentioning: the Vision for Equitable Climate Action, hashed out by over 100 (!) groups. https://equitableclimateaction.org/
7. This distributed process of policy development (which, according to everyone I spoke with, was respectful & productive) turned up, somewhat to everyone's surprise, a substantial amount of alignment around a few core policies & principles.
8. First I list 3 principles that guided & informed the development of this new alignment. a) "net-zero emissions by 2050" is the new baseline, the table stakes to get in the game; b) carbon pricing ain't all that; c) Republicans won't offer any help, so you gotta unite the left.
9. Three core pieces of the alignment:
First, STANDARDS: stringent performance & emission standards for 3 of the biggest emitting sectors: electricity, cars, & buildings. Those 3 sectors, where carbon-free alternatives are available now, get you about 2/3 of the way to zero.
First, STANDARDS: stringent performance & emission standards for 3 of the biggest emitting sectors: electricity, cars, & buildings. Those 3 sectors, where carbon-free alternatives are available now, get you about 2/3 of the way to zero.
10. Standards for those 3 sectors are the best way to make rapid progress by 2030, which is absolutely crucial. The idea is to get the electricity sector to net-zero & then shift cars & buildings over to electricity. Electrify everything! https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything
11. Second, INVESTMENTS. The Green New Deal (and then the virus recession) really blew this conversation open. Interest rates are low, the public sector is crumbling & neglected, we need tons of new stuff & millions of new jobs -- time to spend the shit out of some public money.
12. Investment probably deserves its own post, since it includes tons & tons of disparate stuff -- spending on research & innovation, on infrastructure, on environmental remediation, on...electrifying mail trucks. But it's all geared toward stimulating green industries & jobs.
13. Third, JUSTICE. Justice for unions, in that the jobs created by standards & investment will be high-road, high-quality union jobs. Justice for fossil-fuel communities & workers, guaranteeing them pension & healthcare benefits + income support as they transition to clean.
14. And justice for low-income communities, communities of color, & other "frontline" communities, which traditionally have gotten F'd by environmental harms & F'd again by economic transitions. Justice means addressing those disproportionate past harms & preventing future ones.
15. So that's the alignment: standards, investments, & justice (SIJ, in my utterly terrible acronym). It's loose enough to allow for a wide range of policy ideas but specific enough to channel those ideas & give them shape & focus. It's a vision as big as the problem.
16. Obviously, SIJ leaves out a lot of policies. I do not mean to imply that the things left out are bad policy or even bad politics. It's just that they don't command quite the same consensus support from across the left-of-center coalition. Let's look at a few.
17. a) Accountability for fossil fuels -- supporting lawsuits against FF companies, reforming the financial system to better account for FF risks, & finally revoking FF subsidies. This one is v. popular & I almost included it. (SIJA, anyone?) Makes some unions & Ds nervous tho.
18. b) Keep it in the ground, ie, efforts to restrict/block FF mines, wells, pipelines, trains, etc. This is hugely popular on the climate left but still activates opposition from old-line industrial unions, which have disproportionate influence over the union movement & Ds.
19. c) Carbon pricing. There are still pricing zealots, & some folks on the left utterly opposed to pricing, but these days, I think most people view it as a helpful supplement if possible, but neither necessary nor central to climate policy. Again, not *against*, just realistic.
20. d & e) Nuclear & CCS. Similar dynamic for both: EJ communities tend to be against, as they suffer the local harms, but unions tend to be for, as they get the jobs. Lots more to be said about both these, but this thread is getting unwieldy.
21. So that's the first piece. An inclusive process has uncovered broad alignment. Several issues remain to be settled, but SIJ, on its own, is robust & powerful. It's not a lowest common denominator -- it's something climate hawks can proudly support. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21252892/climate-change-democrats-joe-biden-renewable-energy-unions-environmental-justice
22. The second piece is about Joe Biden & his relationship to all this. He won the primary without the youth left, but he's going to need its support to win in November. And there's no better way to get it than to go big on climate policy. Polling shows that climate change ...
23. ... is a top-priority issue for committed Democrats & young voters. It's one of the best ways to reach persuadable voters. And it's the issue that works best for peeling off wavering Trump voters! @DataProgress had a great poll/memo on this. https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/climate-change-persuasion
24. IOW, contrary to DC conventional wisdom (which still reigns in some parts of the Dem caucus), climate is not a niche lefty issue that risks alienating moderates. It is, in fact, a political sweet spot for Biden -- gets him young voters, persuadables, & even some Trumpies!
25. Biden's campaign is signaling loudly that it hears & understands all this. With Sanders, it assembled an *amazing* climate task force. It is consulting w/ green groups behind the scenes & hearing all about SIJ & its political potency. Though it hasn't said much publicly...
26. ... what it has said (& what it has said to green groups privately) suggests that it is moving in an SIJ direction. And that is the smartest political move it could make, the best way to make a splash & generate some youth enthusiasm. It's a no-brainer.
27. Obviously, the devil is in the details. Whether Biden can get the climate left on his side depends greatly on what exactly his new policy platform looks like (coming out in summer some time I think) &, just as much, how well Biden & the campaign communicate authentic passion.
28. We are on the darkest timeline, so *anything* good faces long odds. But you can at least see, if you squint right, a new possibility: a climate champion leading a unified party to victory & then using the momentum to drive forward regulatory & legislative efforts on climate.
29. The campaign will have to be extremely deft in how it structures & communicates its new policy. The climate left will have to be somewhat magnanimous & willing to overlook past sins. Dem "moderates" will have to get over the idea that anything the left likes is bad/risky.
30. The broad left-of-center is not used to getting along, especially about climate, & it's certainly easy to imagine everyone just staying in their bunkers & clinging to their narrowly defined identities. But the policy nucleus is there to unify them if they're capable of it.
31. Oh, one other thing: SIJ is also popular *relative to other climate policies*. @DataProgress did a poll on this too, where they gave people the choice of cap'n'trade, a "carbon fee," or SIJ. Pluralities in both parties prefer SIJ. https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/standards-investments
32. Just a few shout-outs, to conclude.
* The Green New Deal crew completely transformed the climate discussion & opened up room for much greater ambition.
* US CAN convened the Vision for Equitable Climate Action process, showing that cross-factional cooperation is possible.
* The Green New Deal crew completely transformed the climate discussion & opened up room for much greater ambition.
* US CAN convened the Vision for Equitable Climate Action process, showing that cross-factional cooperation is possible.
33. * A bunch of EJ groups & big national green groups built trust & produced a common agenda: the Equitable & Just National Climate Platform.
* The crew behind Inslee's gold-standard climate plan has formed @EvergreenAction, doing crucial work to advance the SIJ vision.
* The crew behind Inslee's gold-standard climate plan has formed @EvergreenAction, doing crucial work to advance the SIJ vision.
34. * Finally, huge bigups to @DataProgress, which has become indispensable in an amazingly short amount of time. They've done tons of great polling on this & were articulating the SIJ vision back in February: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2020/2/18/the-fingerprints-of-the-green-new-deal-are-all-over-the-clean-future-act
35. Did I ever link to the Biden piece? I think I forgot, so here it is. Anyway, that's the latest: climate policy alignment is in place &, with some smart politics, Biden could transform it into political alignment. You may say I'm a dreamer ... </fin> https://www.vox.com/2020/5/28/21265416/joe-biden-climate-change-democrats-young-voters
