The assumption that Hong Kong will decline as a financial hub is predicated on the notion that China can't change international norms.

Instead, allow yourself to imagine a Hong Kong that continues to thrive because companies will give up almost anything for access to China.

Just think. People say that the fall of HK will augur the continued rise of Shanghai and Shenzhen.

But what is the unspoken assumption there? That banks and firms are willing to be subject to China's politicized legal system, corruption, and etc.

In this view, then, Hong Kong's rule of law and vaunted judicial independence has become vestigial. Like a perk. Something that you can live without.

Let's think a little more on this. Hong Kong's economy sank into a recession amid 2019's mass protests. Yes, I realize the HK govt, & Beijing, are ultimately responsible.

But without those protests--and believe me, we will soon be w/o those protests--business will pick up again.

And then we will start getting a bunch of hot takes about how this really wasn't so bad after all.

And Beijing/HK gov may announce some special preferential policies to help make companies even happier.

And people will say, oh never mind, we were wrong, Hong Kong isn't as free as it was before but life here is still good! (as long as you shut up about politics).

I mean, if Shanghai is thriving, and if Shenzhen is thriving, why can't Hong Kong, with some time and adjustments?

I'm not saying that this is definitely going to happen.

But I think there's this belief in the US that OF COURSE Hong Kong's economic/financial status will take a hit if it becomes less free. Because we NEED there to be a positive correlation b/t political freedom & prosperity.

I think we are most likely going to see a period of uncertainty and adjustment. And then....what will likely emerge is a still-thriving Hong Kong.

Unless HK people go full-on guerilla warfare, "become ungovernable," etc.