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Cowboys playoff appearances in the Dak era
Net win probability added by each Dallas unit
vs. GB (2016)—L
Offense: +39 points of win probability
Defense: -93 points
vs. SEA (2018)—W
Offense: +31 points
Defense: +21 points
@ LA (2018)—L
Offense: +7 points
Defense: -56 points
Net win probability added by each Dallas unit
vs. GB (2016)—L
Offense: +39 points of win probability
Defense: -93 points
vs. SEA (2018)—W
Offense: +31 points
Defense: +21 points
@ LA (2018)—L
Offense: +7 points
Defense: -56 points
Net win probability added in playoffs on Dak's plays only
vs. GB (2016)—L
Dak WPA: +34 points of win probability
vs. SEA (2018)—W
Dak WPA: +48 points
@ LA (2018)—L
Dak WPA: +17 points
Losing 2 of 3 games where your QB improves your winning chances by this much is...unusual.
vs. GB (2016)—L
Dak WPA: +34 points of win probability
vs. SEA (2018)—W
Dak WPA: +48 points
@ LA (2018)—L
Dak WPA: +17 points
Losing 2 of 3 games where your QB improves your winning chances by this much is...unusual.
It's just the difference in a team's chances of winning before the play and after the play, according to a model based on down, distance, field position, score & time. So if a play moves you from 43% odds to 50% odds to win, that's +7 points of WPA. https://twitter.com/IntheClutch75/status/1266416473058279427
It's really hard to argue the Cowboys playoff losses fall primarily on Dak's shoulders. You can say he was outdueled by Rodgers—he was. You can argue he didn't have his best game vs. the Rams—that's true too. But the team caught conspicuously few breaks outside of his play.
At some point I think we're going to need to let go of the narrative that Dak doesn't make big plays in big moments. There's not really any evidence for it, beyond the obvious fact that his average play isn't a 75-yard touchdown
All quarterbacks miss throws, take sacks, etc. Some will inevitably come in big moments. The burden of proof is on critics to show that Dak's errors have disproportionately come in high-leverage situations—and that this would be a reliable piece of information going forward.
To clarify: This is how much Dak's plays (or the offense's, depending on which tweet you're looking at) contributed to his *team's* chances of winning. https://twitter.com/ACUWildcats1/status/1266491579805696000
Some huge plays from Dak's playoff career so far, according to WPA:
1. Dak's 7-yard TD pass to Dez on 3rd and 2 with ~4 minutes to go vs. GB. (Dak then tied the game on a QB draw.)
2. Dak's perfect arc TD pass to Gallup vs. SEA that gave DAL the lead right before the half.
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1. Dak's 7-yard TD pass to Dez on 3rd and 2 with ~4 minutes to go vs. GB. (Dak then tied the game on a QB draw.)
2. Dak's perfect arc TD pass to Gallup vs. SEA that gave DAL the lead right before the half.
...
Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
3. Dak's epic QB draw + extension and flip to convert 3rd and 14 and set up first-and-goal from the 1 vs. SEA. This all but secured their lead with ~2:30 left in the game.
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3. Dak's epic QB draw + extension and flip to convert 3rd and 14 and set up first-and-goal from the 1 vs. SEA. This all but secured their lead with ~2:30 left in the game.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
4. The play where Hurns sustained a terrible injury vs. SEA was also a big third-down conversion in the first quarter, with the Cowboys up by only 3 points at their own 26 yard line.
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4. The play where Hurns sustained a terrible injury vs. SEA was also a big third-down conversion in the first quarter, with the Cowboys up by only 3 points at their own 26 yard line.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
5. Dak fires an 11-yard strike to Amari Cooper that secured a first down and would have brought the Cowboys into the Rams red zone. Cooper takes it the rest of the way for the score. Cowboys lead 7-3 in the first quarter.
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5. Dak fires an 11-yard strike to Amari Cooper that secured a first down and would have brought the Cowboys into the Rams red zone. Cooper takes it the rest of the way for the score. Cowboys lead 7-3 in the first quarter.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
6. Earlier in the 4th quarter of the SEA game, Dak keeps the ball less than 10 yards from the goal line, picks up the first down and sets up the go-ahead touchdown from the 1 yard line.
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6. Earlier in the 4th quarter of the SEA game, Dak keeps the ball less than 10 yards from the goal line, picks up the first down and sets up the go-ahead touchdown from the 1 yard line.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
7. Dak delivers a good pass to Gallup on 3rd and 8 with ~6:30 left in the game, but the refs catch K.J. Wright hooking Gallup to get into position to bat it away. Automatic first down that eventually leads to Dak's flip play.
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7. Dak delivers a good pass to Gallup on 3rd and 8 with ~6:30 left in the game, but the refs catch K.J. Wright hooking Gallup to get into position to bat it away. Automatic first down that eventually leads to Dak's flip play.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
8. Dak finds Cooper wide open in the SEA secondary on 2nd and 8 near the start of the fourth quarter. Cooper ends up with a 34-yard gain into the Seahawks red zone.
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8. Dak finds Cooper wide open in the SEA secondary on 2nd and 8 near the start of the fourth quarter. Cooper ends up with a 34-yard gain into the Seahawks red zone.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
9. Dak and Dez draw a pass interference call vs. the GB secondary on 3rd and 8, which sets up a successful red zone effort with ~5 minutes to play in the game.
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9. Dak and Dez draw a pass interference call vs. the GB secondary on 3rd and 8, which sets up a successful red zone effort with ~5 minutes to play in the game.
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Big WPA plays from Dak's playoff career, cont'd:
10. Late in the third quarter vs. the Rams, down by 8, Dak finds Gallup near the sideline to convert from 2nd and 7. Later in the drive he hits Beasley to convert from 2nd and 10. The drive fails on a 4th and 1 handoff.
10. Late in the third quarter vs. the Rams, down by 8, Dak finds Gallup near the sideline to convert from 2nd and 7. Later in the drive he hits Beasley to convert from 2nd and 10. The drive fails on a 4th and 1 handoff.
^ That's it for now. To summarize, I just don't think it's true that Dak has given us any particular reason to doubt him in big moments. In fact, he's put up some of the better playoff performances we've seen in recent years, even in one of his losses.
A side note: None of these plays came in garbage time. (If they did, they would have barely registered on the WPA scale.)
