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So #DominicCummings attended at least 6 of 34 SAGe meetings btw late Jan & early May.
Ben Warner (AI expert who worked on Tory election & Leave Campaigns)
attended 13.
His brother, Marc Warner, also attended meetings. He won the £250m NHSX app contract.
Ben Warner (AI expert who worked on Tory election & Leave Campaigns)
attended 13.
His brother, Marc Warner, also attended meetings. He won the £250m NHSX app contract.
SAGE minutes from 11/2 show NHS beds was seem as “important” as early as 11/2.
SPI-M given action to work with NHS on modelling impacts (ie comparing epidemic curves to NHS bed & ICU capacity) yet @neil_ferguson only first met NHS on 1/3...19 days later! https://twitter.com/messages/media/1266416956799885317
SPI-M given action to work with NHS on modelling impacts (ie comparing epidemic curves to NHS bed & ICU capacity) yet @neil_ferguson only first met NHS on 1/3...19 days later! https://twitter.com/messages/media/1266416956799885317
There is no follow up in subsequent SAGE minutes on whether the action to model NHS/ICU bed capacity was acted upon.
It would be v interesting to look at all the actions listed in these minutes & see if & when they were progressed.
There is no ‘action log’ so did some get lost?
It would be v interesting to look at all the actions listed in these minutes & see if & when they were progressed.
There is no ‘action log’ so did some get lost?
On 27 February, SAGE drew up a priority list of actions.
What pops up again?
“Model UK epidemic & identity key
numbers for NHS planning” (i.e. bed capacity).
This was STILL on the to do list!
#BREAKING #BreakingNews #COVID19 #coronavirus #COVID19UK
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888778/S0379_Eleventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
What pops up again?
“Model UK epidemic & identity key
numbers for NHS planning” (i.e. bed capacity).
This was STILL on the to do list!
#BREAKING #BreakingNews #COVID19 #coronavirus #COVID19UK
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888778/S0379_Eleventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
On 16/5, following the last big publication of SAGE minutes, I highlighted the significance of the failure to do epidemiological modelling for lockdown (NHS/ICU capacity) until mid-March.
These new documents appear to corroborate this. #Covid19 #Covid https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1261610913658023937?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1261610913658023937
These new documents appear to corroborate this. #Covid19 #Covid https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1261610913658023937?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1261610913658023937
On 25 Feb, it appears that SAGE/govt basically gave up on increasing testing as “it would not significantly increase our understanding of incidence”.
Did they view it as a single wave epidemic, like flu?
Had they still not calculated the consequences?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888777/S0378_Tenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
Did they view it as a single wave epidemic, like flu?
Had they still not calculated the consequences?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888777/S0378_Tenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
The same minutes from 25 Feb, contain the action that led to Neil Ferguson having a ‘workshop’ in early March with the NHS to understand bed numbers & ‘surge capacity’.
It is unclear why this still wasn’t pre-loaded given it was discussed at the SAGE meeting on 11 Feb. #BREAKING
It is unclear why this still wasn’t pre-loaded given it was discussed at the SAGE meeting on 11 Feb. #BREAKING
“There are probably more cases in the UK than SAGE previously expected.”
On 13 March, the penny was starting to drop that the virus had spread more widely than first thought (no doubt due to half-term travel to Europe). #coronavirus #COVID19 #Covid19UK https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888783/S0383_Fifteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
On 13 March, the penny was starting to drop that the virus had spread more widely than first thought (no doubt due to half-term travel to Europe). #coronavirus #COVID19 #Covid19UK https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888783/S0383_Fifteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
“On the basis of accumulating data, including NHS critical care capacity, the advice of SAGE has changed with regard to the speed of implementation additional interventions.”
The penny finally dropped on 16 March. It should have been calculated early Feb. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888784/S0384_Sixteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
The penny finally dropped on 16 March. It should have been calculated early Feb. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888784/S0384_Sixteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
Ystdy, @BorisJohnson said
some schools will reopen Monday.
Today, @RishiSunak talked about uniforms being “pulled out of the wardrobe”.
But 6 weeks ago, on 16 April, SAGE said: “There is a consensus that evidence on the role of children in transmission of #COVID19 is unclear.”
some schools will reopen Monday.
Today, @RishiSunak talked about uniforms being “pulled out of the wardrobe”.
But 6 weeks ago, on 16 April, SAGE said: “There is a consensus that evidence on the role of children in transmission of #COVID19 is unclear.”
Dept of Education asked SAGE to model several scenarios for schools opening none of which - it seems - are the scenario the govt is using to re-open from Monday.
Who did the govts scenario & is there modelling for it?
This 1/4 report gives evidence of transmission in children.
Who did the govts scenario & is there modelling for it?
This 1/4 report gives evidence of transmission in children.
Schools are useful 4 a #HerdImmunity strategy
On 21/4 a Dutch govt #COVID19 adviser is asked: “You want people to keep getting infected, including children?”
A: Yes. Children will infect each other but not get serious symptoms & then infect their parents
On 21/4 a Dutch govt #COVID19 adviser is asked: “You want people to keep getting infected, including children?”
A: Yes. Children will infect each other but not get serious symptoms & then infect their parents
If you are not sure what #HerdImmunity is all about, this #THREADexplains.
The Dutch have been more open about the strategy. I’m the UK the findings on 16/3
supposedly made govt “pivot” away from #HerdImmunity, but it seems that this is NOT the case.
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736
explains.The Dutch have been more open about the strategy. I’m the UK the findings on 16/3
supposedly made govt “pivot” away from #HerdImmunity, but it seems that this is NOT the case.https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736
