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MY THOUGHTS ON LADAKH IMBROGLIO
It has nothing to do with what most are suggesting. That, India built infrastructure close to the Border, and China reacted to it. If that was the case China wouldn't have done it in a coordinated manner stretching from Sikkim to Ladakh.
It has nothing to do with what most are suggesting. That, India built infrastructure close to the Border, and China reacted to it. If that was the case China wouldn't have done it in a coordinated manner stretching from Sikkim to Ladakh.
China is behaving differently now than how it has in the past. More bellicose, more threatening. Nothing from India's side has merited it (unless one says that this is their recalibrated response after Dolam. But even that might not hold water).
Whatever China is doing now, it has nothing to do with issues at Ladakh. It has more to do with sending signals to India of making the borders hot.
It wants to make borders hot cos it can't touch some other efforts, possibly?
It wants to make borders hot cos it can't touch some other efforts, possibly?
I find it a bit too much of a coincidence that China starts behaving in this manner close at heels of India becoming the Chairman of WHO.
India's chairmanship in WHO would indicate that there is a bigger game afoot in UN and other world bodies.
India's chairmanship in WHO would indicate that there is a bigger game afoot in UN and other world bodies.
I have a feeling that a post COVID response to China is being crafted, in coordination between a number of nations. India is one of the players in that response.
One saw the response unfolding with successive steps being taken against Huawei. US banned chips. UK has banned Huawei from 5G. Canada is to follow suit, etc. Let's not treat these steps in isolation.
The Quad could be a lot more formalised than what we are aware of.
The Quad could be a lot more formalised than what we are aware of.
China is possibly come to know of all this or has a sense of it and knows it is getting cornered.
China is thus trying to send messages that it will make it costly for those who are participating in this exercise.
China is thus trying to send messages that it will make it costly for those who are participating in this exercise.
The point is, China is NOT in a position to act on India. It's force levels, irrespective of its postures, is far weaker than what India can bring to the table in case of a conflict in those areas. China knows it.
The flight of B1B by US, across South China sea, US coming out with a statement that it will not tolerate China's expansionist stances vis-a-vis India, US recognising Tibet and today Trump proposing to mediate are not disconnected from each other.
Wrt Trump wanting to mediate, China will not want ANY third party to mediate. Why? Cos they have NO documents to show to back their claim. They don't want to be exposed on that count. It is possibly on this very reason as to why Trump has offered to mediate.
It will be more difficult for China to back down from what is happening than it will be for India. For India, it is a matter of moving troops for less than 100 km. China has to bring them over 1000s. That too non-acclimatised. How long does it keep up posturing?
And if it stops posturing, how does it calibrate it up? There is no surprise left in its actions.
China's action will ONLY serve to consolidate what it doesn't want. An active Quad. A coordinated effort by nations against it. It getting labelled as a pariah state.
China's action will ONLY serve to consolidate what it doesn't want. An active Quad. A coordinated effort by nations against it. It getting labelled as a pariah state.
Its 'Wolf Diplomacy' will only hasten this process and work against its image.
African nations, who are under the yoke of China, are utilising this moment to seek cancellation of interest of loan or bringing it to 1%, else they are talking of nationalising the assets
African nations, who are under the yoke of China, are utilising this moment to seek cancellation of interest of loan or bringing it to 1%, else they are talking of nationalising the assets
IF China gets further embroiled with India, how does it then enforce its writ in Africa? If it enforces writ, it further alienates. If it doesn't it loses money and bleeds. Not to mention, send out a bad signal to all its other colonising efforts. What does it do?
After all this, India, US, UK, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan...all have a very strong reason to come together. Just the thing China wouldn't have wanted.
China is taking a series of steps to further hasten the loss of brand image, after COVID, instead of recouping image. It is behaving like a wounded nouveau riche adolescent. Well, not the best mindset to have when playing a game of chess with adults. In all this, if the
Quad start sharing military logistics, information and assets, I am not sure China will be on a secure boat. They have already conducted numerous exercise to do just that. US definitely wants to pin China and is looking for an excuse. There are many who are wanting to join in.
In all this, I see India sitting pretty and comfortable. Even if some 'commentators' aren't.
You choose how you decide to sit on it. But, after everything has wound down, PLEASE remember the Rudali brigade and all that they had said during this phase.
You choose how you decide to sit on it. But, after everything has wound down, PLEASE remember the Rudali brigade and all that they had said during this phase.
