Fewer people are now dying in France than in a “normal” year, despite the toll from Covid-19. The Fr. stats agency has updated “all deaths” figures to 18 May. As their graph shows, deaths this month (yellow line) are below 2018 (blue - bad flu year) and 2019 (red – average). 1/5

There were 27,218 deaths from all causes in France from 1 to 18 May, the stats agency, INSEE, says. This is 6% less than last year (average year) and 1% less than 2018 (bad ‘flu year). There is therefore no “excess mortality” in France since 1 May – in fact the opposite. 2/5

Taking the period from 1 March to 30 April, there was a sharp rise in deaths, especially in late March-early April (see graph). Excess mortality for that period, compared to “average” 2019, was 26,299. The official Covid-19 death toll for the period was lower - 24,376. 3/5

Several factors may explain why May mortality is lower than previous years. C19 deaths fell sharply after “confinement” but there were fewer road/work accidents. C19 is claiming victims that would have fallen to flu. I’m told, 2020 was a “low death” year before C19 arrived. 4/5

Conclusion: French official death stats for Covid-19 may yet have to be revised upwards. Home deaths are still not included. But, using “excess mortality” as the yardstick, they seem very reliable. Unlike those in the NL and UK... to name but two. 5/5