Thus, China responded to the economic shock caused by the #COVID19 and & #39;draconian& #39; lock-downs with & #39;draconian& #39; stimulus, setting the stage for other nations to follow.

The only word to describe this is: Desperation.

Remember. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index"> 2/
The small decline in the share of non-financial sector debt to GDP will explode in Q1 and Q2 2020.

And, the shadow banking sector has grown to a "beast". https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">

Chinese economy is massively leveraged. 3/
And, fragile. Due to the massive debt-stimulus after the GFC, Chinese productivity started to decline in 2012.

Personally, I consider 2012 as the year, when the & #39;Chinese Miracle& #39; ended.

Since then, China& #39;s economy has lived on borrowed time. 4/
The & #39;leading indicators& #39; have also, unsurprisingly, plunged heavily.

The effects of the & #39;demand destruction& #39; will keep accumulating in the global economy fed by the lock-downs across the globe.

The fall in global demand will hit China hard in the coming months. 5/
The recovery plan of China has concentrated on providing infrastructure investments and supporting manufacturing, which is visible in the data. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">

However, retail sector is still in & #39;dire straits& #39; with further decline of 9% in April. 7/
@BOFITresearch https://twitter.com/BOFITresearch/status/1261243548227248128">https://twitter.com/BOFITrese...
To recap.

China& #39;s #economy is:
1) Extremely levered.
2) Fragile.
3) Dependent on global demand and domestic spending, which both are sputtering.

I am sorry to disappoint, but #China will not recover from this. & #39;Hard landing& #39; awaits.

And. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index"> /End https://gnseconomics.com/2020/05/04/the-economic-end-scenarios-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/">https://gnseconomics.com/2020/05/0...
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