Test and trace has a fatal error.
As we have pointed out on #insidehealth for weeks, the gov has refused to say what the false negative rate is. This means that you have covid-19 and are likely infectious but your test result is negative.

It’s likely that the risk of false negative tests in the drive through service is worse because self taken swabs are hard to do and risk not getting the virus onto the swab. So you have the virus but the test shows you don’t have it.

The experts I’ve spoken to think the false negative rate is probably now less than 30% but dont know how much by. The point is we don’t know. But it could be that a third of people who have symptoms of covid test negative. And follow government advice . https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nhs-test-and-trace-how-it-works

This advice says you can go back to work if your test is negative and your household can stop self isolation too. But for a possibly about a third of those people the test is wrong. They do have covid-19. They and their household members can spread it.

This is why tests need to be interpreted carefully in the context of symptoms. For example, young person in your house has a temperature and clearly has mumps - on balance will trust a negative test. But if has loss taste, dry cough, fever- I won’t trust the test.

It’s absurd for the government to roll out hugely expensive programme without knowing rough false negative rate and making sure it’s used rationally. Worryingly there is a possibly big chance that believing unreliable negative results will result in more covid-19 being spread.

The test and trace programme may end up ironically doing more harm than good. We need protect and survive - this needs urgent review @MattHancock @NicolaSturgeon @Jeremy_Hunt