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Looking at my notes from March and April and reappraised our response (Irish people).
Strong conclusion is we did excellently for our part of the world and you should all be very proud of your individual responses.
I'll lay it all out in detail for anyone who cares:
Strong conclusion is we did excellently for our part of the world and you should all be very proud of your individual responses.
I'll lay it all out in detail for anyone who cares:
Countries can test as little as they like and put whatever they want on a death cert.
But Dead = Dead, so all-cause-death is the most accurate representation of a pandemic response.
Difficult to compare due to registration imbalances, but more time passing helps on that front.
But Dead = Dead, so all-cause-death is the most accurate representation of a pandemic response.
Difficult to compare due to registration imbalances, but more time passing helps on that front.
Looking at covid19 alone doesn't give a true picture of how a country has performed.
A 50-year-old who dies from a heart attack at home, because they were too afraid to call an ambulance, won't be found in a covid19 death total but it's a direct consequence of the pandemic.
A 50-year-old who dies from a heart attack at home, because they were too afraid to call an ambulance, won't be found in a covid19 death total but it's a direct consequence of the pandemic.
Before looking at these Z-Scores, it's very important to point out death registrations in Ireland are slower than most of Western Europe.
The median length of time to register a death in Ireland is 18 days but the average is longer, so these scores are not final.
The median length of time to register a death in Ireland is 18 days but the average is longer, so these scores are not final.
Excess Death Z-Scores, Week 15 (April 6th - April 12th):
Spain +44.18
England +42.00
Belgium +30.37
Netherlands +21.22
France +20.16
Wales +19.62
Scotland +15.63
Sweden +14.50
Italy +14.25
Northern Ireland +9.16
Switzerland +7.58
Ireland +6.83
Portugal +5.18
Spain +44.18
England +42.00
Belgium +30.37
Netherlands +21.22
France +20.16
Wales +19.62
Scotland +15.63
Sweden +14.50
Italy +14.25
Northern Ireland +9.16
Switzerland +7.58
Ireland +6.83
Portugal +5.18
Weeks 14 and 15 (March 30th to April 12th) were approaching the epidemic peak in Western Europe.
61 days have elapsed since March 30th, so while those Z-Scores for Ireland are still open to more upward revisions, they are getting nearer to accurate scores for those weeks.
61 days have elapsed since March 30th, so while those Z-Scores for Ireland are still open to more upward revisions, they are getting nearer to accurate scores for those weeks.
Preliminary conclusions from Excess Deaths, Week 10 to 15 (March 2nd to April 12th):
Ireland likely had the very best *early* pandemic response in Western Europe, where 'best' is defined as fewest people dying than expected.
Ireland likely had the very best *early* pandemic response in Western Europe, where 'best' is defined as fewest people dying than expected.
Portugal is a viable alternative (in terms of best early response) but studies on Portugal's excess deaths March 1 to April 22nd peg their numbers a little bit higher than Ireland per capita early on, EuroMOMO week 12 supports it.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.20100909v1
https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.20100909v1
https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928
The goal in a Pandemic response is to protect the health of the population.
Large excess deaths occur in responses that failed to protect their people's health, and *some* of that is down to dumb luck, rather than just reflecting the incompetence of various, unnamed leaders.
Large excess deaths occur in responses that failed to protect their people's health, and *some* of that is down to dumb luck, rather than just reflecting the incompetence of various, unnamed leaders.
Good example of rotten luck is the Lombardy Cluster in Italy.
a) It was one of the earliest clusters in Europe and b) the accelerating spreading affect was achieved by one of the early seeders being a fit young man, whose job placed him in close contact with a lot of people.
a) It was one of the earliest clusters in Europe and b) the accelerating spreading affect was achieved by one of the early seeders being a fit young man, whose job placed him in close contact with a lot of people.
That Lombardy cluster began with the identification of 18 positives all linked to one person.
When you're dealing with exponential or sub-exponential spreads, starting off with a cluster of 2 is far better than starting with a cluster of 18.
That's just arbitrary bad luck.
When you're dealing with exponential or sub-exponential spreads, starting off with a cluster of 2 is far better than starting with a cluster of 18.
That's just arbitrary bad luck.
I'll revisit all of this when the Z-score revisions are completed for Week 15. Ireland may well go from +6.83 towards +9 but this seems less likely than staying under +8.
Given the enormous gaps to UK, Belgium, Netherlands, small revisions won't change my conclusions, which are:
Given the enormous gaps to UK, Belgium, Netherlands, small revisions won't change my conclusions, which are:
Through a combination of good luck 
, social distancing and a coherent Public Health response, it's increasingly clear we avoided astronomical levels of Excess Death seen in neighbouring countries.
You should all be proud of it - the hand washing, boredom, monotony, sacrifice.
, social distancing and a coherent Public Health response, it's increasingly clear we avoided astronomical levels of Excess Death seen in neighbouring countries.You should all be proud of it - the hand washing, boredom, monotony, sacrifice.
FAQ:
"Ok what about NZ and Tajikistan"
I focus on Western Europe because that's where we live.
When someone explains to me how we can teleport Dublin to the Pacific Ocean or Galway to the Pamir Mountain range, I'll care more about how well they did compared to us.
"Ok what about NZ and Tajikistan"
I focus on Western Europe because that's where we live.
When someone explains to me how we can teleport Dublin to the Pacific Ocean or Galway to the Pamir Mountain range, I'll care more about how well they did compared to us.
We happen to live in the epicenter of the global outbreak.
As such, the experience of countries in Western Europe whose first death occurred after March 4th (UK, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal) is not very comparable to Burkina Faso either.
As such, the experience of countries in Western Europe whose first death occurred after March 4th (UK, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal) is not very comparable to Burkina Faso either.
"Ok but nursing homes were failed".
True, everywhere failed, we just failed less than our neighbours because these are the nursing home deaths (May 27), controlled for our population:
Spain - 2,872
Belgium - 2,020
UK - 1,881
Netherlands - 1,647
France - 1,071
Ireland - 1,030
True, everywhere failed, we just failed less than our neighbours because these are the nursing home deaths (May 27), controlled for our population:
Spain - 2,872
Belgium - 2,020
UK - 1,881
Netherlands - 1,647
France - 1,071
Ireland - 1,030
"We have very high infection rates in healthcare workers"
Yes, because we tested a lot more of them than other places.
HCW deaths, on other hand, were 7 (out of 7,813 cases). RIP. That's the lowest Case Fatality Rate for our region and the lowest per capita death rate.
Yes, because we tested a lot more of them than other places.
HCW deaths, on other hand, were 7 (out of 7,813 cases). RIP. That's the lowest Case Fatality Rate for our region and the lowest per capita death rate.
"Even if you're right, how did we do better than Belgium"
Biggest difference:
We tested more people *early*, caught more infections & suppressed them.
March 31st, tests per million:
Ireland 6,345
Portugal 5,068
Netherlands 2,686
UK 2,120
Belgium 1,594
Biggest difference:
We tested more people *early*, caught more infections & suppressed them.
March 31st, tests per million:
Ireland 6,345
Portugal 5,068
Netherlands 2,686
UK 2,120
Belgium 1,594
If you look at testing rates now, Belgium is doing brilliantly in terms of testing.
But their early testing ground to a standstill due to reagent shortages, whereas we kept it ticking over despite the shortages.
Suppressing more early clusters was the biggest difference.
But their early testing ground to a standstill due to reagent shortages, whereas we kept it ticking over despite the shortages.
Suppressing more early clusters was the biggest difference.
It might sound like nothing now but Ireland completing 12,221 tests between March 24th to March 30th was inspirational.
To get near 2,000 tests a day was a monumental achievement, given it was a brand new disease with a brand new complicated test, alongside reagent shortages.
To get near 2,000 tests a day was a monumental achievement, given it was a brand new disease with a brand new complicated test, alongside reagent shortages.
It's not a coincidence Ireland and Portugal are doing best in our region and it's not just the fact we had late outbreaks, because the first death in Ireland happened the same day as the first death in Belgium.
It's because Ireland and Portugal went looking for the virus - fast.
It's because Ireland and Portugal went looking for the virus - fast.
Two countries I'm especially proud of are Ireland and Belgium, for counting nursing home deaths accurately, despite it making them look worse in real time.
The workload involved in doing that was enormous, so to everyone involved in that, thank you for going that extra mile.
The workload involved in doing that was enormous, so to everyone involved in that, thank you for going that extra mile.
The purpose of this thread isn't to say Irish shit doesn't stink because mistakes were made at all levels.
I'll never forget the playgrounds and green the day the schools closed - absolutely jammed like summer holidays - and it took a few days for the penny to drop.
I'll never forget the playgrounds and green the day the schools closed - absolutely jammed like summer holidays - and it took a few days for the penny to drop.
But we are absolutely world-class at putting ourselves down and I don't think people stop to appreciate the size of the task we faced and how well people responded to it.
It's not nothing to stay at home for months, especially for children. That's a big sacrifice to make.
It's not nothing to stay at home for months, especially for children. That's a big sacrifice to make.
You're all a bunch of legends is my opinion.
From the medical scientists, nurses, doctors all the way down to the Normal People and Tiger King watchers on their couch, who were not outside spreading a lethal virus.
Legends.
From the medical scientists, nurses, doctors all the way down to the Normal People and Tiger King watchers on their couch, who were not outside spreading a lethal virus.
Legends.
