Nate is right! https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1266174372433313792

there are at least two major reasons why this is so off:

(1) dumb MAGA money bets trump straight-up and doesn't search out other markets

(2) state markets are on party, not Biden, so any Biden health issue with covid is not at play

Most of it is (1) - same pattern in 2018.

also, I'm part of the problem as I own Trump at 49 right here and will keep trading 49-50 as long as people keep buying from me. I welcome the market's punishment at any time!

also, RJ beat Nate to this take a lot earlier: https://twitter.com/rainbow_jeremy_/status/1266037865542230024?s=20

literally 6m after this thread - maybe people are out there deliberately inversing Nate, lol