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1/ No upset this week, $SBUX gets the win followed by $CMG.
I totally get $SBUX getting the most votes: It's by far the most established of these restaurants and sells coffee at premium prices. Hard to beat that combo!
Now let's take a look at these companies using @ycharts. https://twitter.com/Matt_Cochrane7/status/1265699589564268547
I totally get $SBUX getting the most votes: It's by far the most established of these restaurants and sells coffee at premium prices. Hard to beat that combo!
Now let's take a look at these companies using @ycharts. https://twitter.com/Matt_Cochrane7/status/1265699589564268547
2/ As already mentioned, the only one of these choices that didn't beat the market over the trailing 3 yrs is $SBUX, while $CMG and especially $WING have smoked the S&P 500 $SPX index.
3/ One metric we've overlooked that's important is market cap. But this is what gives us a sense of how much bigger $SBUX than $CMG, while Chipotle also dwarfs $WING and $SHAK.
4/ The first thing I look at is revenue growth. By this metric, both $SHAK and $WING's performance are truly impressive, the power of starting from a much smaller revenue base (and far less locations).
5/ But we can't just look at top-line growth, we also need to look at earnings growth. Interesting to note that w/ all its problems, $CMG's EPS < than it was 5 yrs ago. Also that $SHAK's impressive revenue growth didn't translate as much to the bottom-line as $WING's growth did.
6/ What about valuation? By free cash flow yield, all appear fairly expensive, though there's no doubt COVID-19 has played a role in that.
Even going back to the beginning of this Feb, $SBUX's FCF yield was almost 200 basis points higher.
Even going back to the beginning of this Feb, $SBUX's FCF yield was almost 200 basis points higher.
7/ By P/E ratio, $SBUX looks downright cheap compared to the rest of this group. B/c of their small market cap's, you could almost excuse $SHAK and $WING, but why does $CMG deserve this multiple?
8/ Let's turn our attention to margins, starting w/ gross margin.
I have to admit, I was first shocked when I saw how much higher $WING's gross margin was compared to the others! Then I remembered - franchises vs owning restaurants are different business models!
I have to admit, I was first shocked when I saw how much higher $WING's gross margin was compared to the others! Then I remembered - franchises vs owning restaurants are different business models!
9/ By operating margin, $WING and $SBUX stand above the rest. What stood out the most though was $SHAK's really low margin? Without knowing the company better, not sure if that's a red flag or an opportunity.
10/ $SBUX might be the best-run food service company in the world. I'm familiar w/ this one more than the others, and it's hard to bet against it, but at its current size it's right to wonder how much more it can grow.
11/ $WING appears to be a great business model that's taking off -- and priced for it.
$SHAK might be a decent opportunity now if -- and this is a crucial IF - it can turn its operating margin around.
$CMG is just too expensive for my taste, though it's a well-run business
$SHAK might be a decent opportunity now if -- and this is a crucial IF - it can turn its operating margin around.
$CMG is just too expensive for my taste, though it's a well-run business
12/ These metrics are a good start to researching companies, but investors' jobs are from finished. A lot more about these business models would need to be learned before making an investment.
