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China's handling of COVID-19 has reinforced India's preexisting thinking of the country
You could break down the public perception on three levels. 1) Government, 2) key-stakeholders and commentators 3) the general public
In the government you can see two tracks Cooperation and competition. The government has tried to cautiously seek engagement. It needed the medical supplies, and finance. So you've seen cooperation with this. Yet, China's lack of transparency has fueled some of India's concerns.
India has also been concerned about how China has taken advantage of the crisis. First Chinese companies will take over Indian companies. Second India will use it to move into the neighborhood. 3rd, it will try to tout the efficiency of the China model
*increase its influence in what India considers its neighborhood. This includes South Asia, as well as the Indian Ocean region.
One thing I think you will see is India working in regional and multilateral institutions to try and actively balance against China.
When I talk about the Indian establishment, whether business leaders, commentators, etc. You see far more vocal criticism of China. One thing that has become much more frequent is talk about China's character, i.e. that its not a democracy.
Another discussion is how China's actions have started to affect the Indian public. This and the border crisis has even caused some Indian doves to take a more hardliner approach to China, at least more than what we've seen in the past.
On the Public front. You see lots of memes or attacks has been quite critical. China has been criticized for the handling of the COVID virus, its role in the WHO, and even bringing up the Taiwan issue which got relatively little discussion in the past.
Even before the boundary issue, I suspect that you'll see even more cautious views of parts of the Indian public will become more critical.
That was a summary of her main remarks. We will be posting the recording later. I'll try to summarize any of the main points she makes during Q/A
Q: What is driving China's behavior in regards to the boundary issue?
Response: There isn't a monocasual reason for this. Infrastructure development and China's troop presence has been a problem. India has been doing a lot to catch up. It does seem that China is using that as a rational to do its actions as "India is changing the status quo".
There is also reasons to believe that China's assertiveness on the boundary issue to its general assertiveness more broadly. There is strength and witness. Strength: China has come out of COVID quickly while others are still recovering. Weakness: China's image is hurting due to
COVID
Of course it is a combination of reasons. There are bilateral issues, China's worry of India becoming too close to the US.
Q: What is China's end game? What does the recent muscle flexing tell us of China's long term strategic thinking?
. @tanvi_madan: The right answer for "what is their endgame" is "we don't know" because we don't know their motivations. You can look at a couple of points: India is playing catch up, so China is looking to pressure India on what infrastructure is acceptable. Also it could be
a tactical thing related to Doklam.But it could also be to tell India to be wary of reaching out to the United States. Those could all be part of their 'endgame'. Ultimately, their motivation has always been connected to regime stability, so that's how we can identify the endgame
Q: How can the US use the shifts among Indian opinion.
. @tanvi_madan: When China is doing what its doing, just get out of the way. The US getting involved fuels conspiracy among China, but also it might hurt US's own perceptions.....
. @tanvi_madan: When China is doing what its doing, just get out of the way. The US getting involved fuels conspiracy among China, but also it might hurt US's own perceptions.....
What the United States needs to worry about in Indian public opinion is the US, not about its opinion on China.
Q: Can India use COVID and the boundary crisis to grow its soft power, build up its capabilities, and attract more investments?
. @tanvi_madan: It really depends on India's performance. For India to come out of all this relatively well (economy, medicine,etc.) is important. But also, India can portray itself as the 'un-China'. But that means you can't do what China is doing. You can't coerce your neighbors
and how you behave at home is important.
Q: How do you see this crisis in light of India's current problems with Nepal? Is India losing ground in the neighborhood, and has China taken advantage of it?
. @tanvi_madan: In the case of Nepal, they have their own problems with India that doesn't have to do with China. In this case, Nepali nationalism is taking a strong stand against India. Sometime China spurs it on, or it just takes advantage of them.
While they might be stoking the fire, I'm not sure they're driving this.
