[THREAD] @barca_natics and I decided to take a look at why @ManCity defense has regressed so much this season. As you can see City’s defense has declined in virtually all defensive aspects. (viz by @MatPilotto)


*Recovery/Tackling heatmaps by @StatifiedF

Laporte's injury has been a popular reason for this decline. However, another big reason is City's deteriorating pressing.

City have conceded significantly more counter attacks on average this season, & Rodri replacing Fernandinho at CDM can help explain why.

At first glance, there seems to be little difference in the pressing profile of Fernandinho (18/19) and Rodri (19/20).


Why then has City's pressing intensity [as indicated by PPDA] declined?
- In short: because Rodri & Fernandinho's pressing profiles aren't similar.

First we must consider how Pep's team aims to stop counter attacks. Because City's CMs play so high upfield, Pep inverts his fullbacks to create a 5-man defense to control counter attacks.

However this setup constantly leaves the second line with a decision to make.

The second line, and the CDM in particular, will have to always decide when to push forward & support the counter press, & when to hang-back/retreat to try to contain the situation. A source close to @TheAthleticUK revealed that this is an area City want Rodri to improve on.

Fernandinho had perfected this last season. Here we see him recognizing that the Pogba has beaten the counter-press, so he hangs back & waits for Pogba to advance towards him, then selects the perfect opportunity to close him down, win the ball back, & stop the counter attack.

In a similar situation, Mane is already beyond City's first line, and Rodri does not recognize that there is no opportunity to counter press given the limited support.


He pushes up to close down Mane, but with little support, is bypassed easily, & Liverpool counter attack.

Indeed, here we see that Rodri presses more often, but that they are erratic in nature, as they predominantly occur outside of the center of the pitch, and down the flanks in particular.

Fernandinho’s pressing meanwhile is more controlled.

Fernandinho’s engagements are more concentrated in central areas and in the lower mid-3rd, indicating that he possesses a better understanding of when to press vs when to retreat.


Moreover, more of Fernandinho's challenges result in "tactical fouls".

For e.g:
- Fernandinho stops the counter-attack by fouling Lingard. Given that being beaten means surrendering a dangerous opportunity, he commits a "tactical" foul

- Rodri allows Firmino to dribble past him and move into the vacated central area to continue the counter attack

Moreover, Fernandinho is better at positioning himself, particularly in the half-spaces & lower mid-3rd, to block & intercept passes that are crucial to stopping counter-attacks.


His superior positioning & reaction time helps him win crucial second balls more often as well.

Fernandinho positions himself well to win second balls. His reading of the play allows him to react quicker than anyone else, & easily recover the ball.


Rodri is caught watching the ball while stationary. His slow reaction time results in a contested loose ball (he loses).

Of course it is unfair to just blame Rodri for this decline. There are many other factors at play. Among them are:-


- Laporte's injury & Kompany's departure
- B. Silva's diminished role in midfield means City have lost one of their most intense pressers in central areas.

- Mendy's (more frequent) availability this season means Pep has had to adjust his tactics at times. Mendy is at his best as an overlapping FB.


As such, Pep has had to sit KDB/Gundogan (not particularly great defenders) deeper to keep the same 2-3/3-2 structure at the back.

Overall Rodri has performed well in his first season at City. However, he still needs to improve in defensive transition situations.


City's declining defense is a true testament to how important Fernandinho has been for Pep Guardiola's side.