10 Reasons why #Angrynomics is the perfect post #Covid companion. A thread.

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@MkBlyth @ericlonners @agendapub @angrynomics

A combination of #macroeconomic crashes and ever-increasing micro stressors of daily life have produced a world unequal in terms of life-chances and precarious in terms of employment
This has delegitimized existing politics and weaponized populist politics.

Then came #COVID19...

While the virus has temporarily quieted the anger, it has done so by suppressing it. The underlying causes of anger identified in #Angrynomics are still there. Once the virus threat abates, these forces are likely to come back stronger, amplified, unsuppressed:

1. Continued social distancing and the risk of new viral outbreaks at workplaces from meat plants to car factories will accelerate the automation of such industries.
This will pile pressure on already poorly paid workers stuck at the wrong end of the income distribution #Angry

2. Hourly workers in entire industries such as theme parks, movie theaters, cruise lines, airlines, hotels, concerts & major sports, will likely face redundancy as these sectors face permanent losses. Unemployment will stay high, as will the anger associated with it. #Angrynomics

3. Younger workers, especially those with high levels of student loan debt, will face lower lifetime earnings as growth nosedives while their debts still have to be paid. That anger will only grow as governments bail out the rich and the old while piling the costs on the young.

4. As governments said they cannot ‘find the money’ for what voters want, suddenly finding hitherto unimaginable sums for the crisis, those voters will be rather upset when those same governments once again turn to austerity after the crisis to ‘restore the fiscal balance.’

4. b) Doing so in Europe in 2011-2014 brought them populism – and that was when when unemployment was at a ‘mere’ 12%. When governments start turning the screw with unemployment at 30% the results will be explosive. #Angrynomics

5. Local governments everywhere bear the brunt of the costs of fighting #covid and dealing with the associated fallout. All are crucially dependent on local taxes, fees and levies, all of which have collapsed. #Angrynomics

5. b) Example - in the US, they are firing nurses and doctors in the middle of a pandemic, while local governments furlough paramedics and fire fighters to deal with budget shortfalls. Healthcare coverage in the US is tied to employment and the entire system is collapsing.

6. Those with assets will find that their private retirement pots have halved in value. Those relying on public pensions will face the ugly reality that the formulas used to produce those promised pensions have blown up in this new environment. #Angry #Angrynomics

7. Inequality, already bad, will skyrocket, esp. in Anglo-American economies that lack robust welfare states. A handful of people and firms owning everything and earning monopoly profits doing so, will stunt growth and the crumbs falling from the table will become ever scarcer

8. The great experiment in #workingfromhome will accelerate and it will not be a liberating experience as employers increasingly monitor remote performance while workers act as teachers and caregivers while online. #Angrynomics

8. b) It will only increase the divide between non-digital, poorly paid essential workers – delivery drivers, nurses, food preparation workers – and the non-essential, increasingly stressed, but well-remunerated digital classes. #Angrynomics

9. The number of workers in precarious and uncertain work, with ‘flexible’ contracts that favor the employer over the worker, will increase. Those with ‘regular’ contracts will decrease. Uncertainty and fear, the key ingredient of extreme politics, will return with a vengeance.

10. Finally, if #COVID19 is the first great challenge to such an angry world, the bigger challenge - #climatechange - is still coming. COVID-19 makes this much harder, with the collapse in oil prices and politicians may be writing cheques that they cannot cash. #Angrynomics

What if there's no return to normal, as seems increasingly likely? What happens when ‘opening the economy’ becomes a series of false starts and extended #lockdowns? What if there's no automatic immunity and no miracle vaccine, despite all the promises to the contrary?

In short, #Angrynomics is not just an explanation of how we got the world we got. It’s a road map for what #COVID19 will do to that world and how we will need to navigate it.

@MkBlyth @ericlonners #economy #economics #EconomicCrisis #econtwitter #author #amreading #BookBoost

The policy ideas and practical proposals that lay at the heart of the book – a citizens wealth fund, a digital dividend, dual interest rates and helicopter money – are in fact more needed and more relevant than ever.

Pre-order now: http://amzn.to/3cNFgWv 

@MkBlyth @ericlonners