Short thread on easing lockdown.

Today 377 people died of COVID-19, and the 7 day rolling average is circa 250 deaths per day. We know from ONS data that the actual death toll is around 30% higher than the ‘official figures so we can assume a daily mortality of around 400. 1/n

For context the average mortality in May is around 10,000 per week, or around 1500 per day, thank you @ONS! COVID-19 is therefore responsible around 1-in-4 deaths nationally. It is therefore the leading cause of death in the UK. 2/n

The top 3 causes of death in the UK are ischarmic heart disease, dementia and lower respiratory disease . In 2018 these combine to cause 145,000 deaths or around 400 per day. 3/n

COVID-19 is therefore not only the leading cause of death in the UK, but it outweighs the top 3 traditional causes of death (from 2018) combined. 4/n

Though daily deaths have dropped from their peak of around 900 (average), the fact that COVID-19 outweighs the next 3 causes of death combined suggest to me that the governments 5 tests have not been met in any material way. 5/n

Easing lockdown while actual deaths are likely to be around 400 per day, feels like the UK Government is mainly interested in changing tomorrow’s headlines, and not interested in a finding safe glide-path out of this crisis. Ends.