What effect has the lockdown had on recruitment to teacher training?

Last month I blogged about the increase in applications to initial teacher training in the first month of lockdown. Today UCAS has published some more data on month two. Some thoughts:

(1/9) https://twitter.com/worth_jack/status/1256187786778083328

The data for mid-April to mid-May shows another increase over and above the previous two recruitment cycles.

This suggests that the number of applicants is likely to be higher at the end of the cycle – good news after many years of under-recruitment

However, one explanation for the jump in April that I missed was that the reporting period was 35 days long rather than the usual 28 days. This happens every 3-4 months to even out the reporting calendar, but does make month-to-month comparisons trickier

Looking at the number of new applicants *per day* suggests that April perhaps wasn’t quite as remarkable compared to previous years once the extra 7 days are accounted for. However, it also shows how far above previous trends the new May data is

This seems to suggest that job insecurity in the wider labour market – unemployment is up, new vacancies are down – may well be encouraging more people into teaching than otherwise would have been

A really useful note on the literature supporting this hypothesis by @AsmaBenhenda @CEPEO_UCL was published today: https://repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeob/cepeobn4.pdf

Asma also highlights the US research that finds that applicants during recessions also tend to be higher quality

Why a surge now? A hunch is that in April the new situation was a shock that seemed like it might be temporary, whereas in May we collectively became much more aware of how long-lasting the economic effects of covid-19 are likely to be

Also, big questions remain in education: how many teachers will we need in future?

The models for setting the ITT targets are based on a world without social distancing, bubbles, rotas and staff shielding. Even if more teachers train, will this be enough?

There may also be big practical challenges for ITT providers next year with course delivery, school placements, etc.

Also, will there be enough mentor capacity? @NASBTT was worried about this even before coronavirus: https://www.nasbtt.org.uk/nasbtt-survey-reveals-doubts-over-mentoring-capacity-to-meet-demands-of-core-content-framework-and-early-career-framework/

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