THREAD:
For traders excited by the continuing claims decline, a more pessimistic take:
1) Don't forget Pandemic Assistance for gig workers not normally eligible for benefits. Add them to regular initial claims and 3,107,574 people filed last week; 1/5

2) If that many people are still filing 10 weeks into the pandemic, it probably means companies are starting to give up and close permanently. Consequences to come; 2/5

3) Don't forget the Paycheck Protection Program So far, 4,448,533 small businesses have received loans. 75% of a loan must be used to rehire or retain employees. So many people who started getting claims may now be on PPP payrolls, getting paid but not working; 3/5

4) The continuing claims decline probably isn't real, skewed by California & Florida paying continuing claims every 2 weeks. And it's delayed a week, so it's not comparable to initial claims. Two weeks ago, Florida reported continuing claims -1,642,476; California -1,442,434; 4/5

5) There are data anomalies we can't necessarily reconcile right now. Georgia was the first state to aggressively reopen. Yet it recorded 164,350 new claims last week, 3rd highest among states. Florida, right behind Georgia, had 173,731 new claims, 2nd highest among states. END