THREAD: On Taliban Prisoners as Leverage in Negotiations.

Many people, including experienced scholars & high-ranking officials, are discussing Taliban prisoners as if they are a significant or even primary source of the Afghan government's leverage. This is mistaken. /1 https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1265719794206232576

As NYT report on Taliban ( @MujMash @Taimoornyt @jimhuylebroek) reminds us, US & Afghan militaries have killed (at minimum) tens of thousands of the militant group's fighters in past decade. Taliban still have tens of thousands fighting, today. /2 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/world/asia/taliban-afghanistan-war.html

Military perspective: even if released Talibs return to the fight, it is not clear additional 5000 fighters would be a decisive advantage. War involves over 200,000 combatants.

Plus, in 2019 Afg govt had no problem releasing hundreds of Talibs for nothing in return. /3

Negotiations perspective: in negotiation, power should be thought of as how *little* one party needs what the other is offering ... or how little leaving the table would hurt them.

Very simplistically: if a party has great alternatives to negotiating, they are strong. /4

An honest appraisal of power/ leverage for both parties in #AfghanPeaceProcess looks like this:

Taliban: violence, and/or threat of it

Afghan govt:
-majority of Afghans support core govt institutions
-support of intl community
-enforcement "muscle" of US military... for now
/5

And prisoners?

Prisoners are like one good hand of cards in an all-night poker game. They may win points, but once played, value is gone. They don't help win the entire night.

In a card game, real leverage would be getting good cards every time, or playing with more money. /6

Many refer to prisoners as "major bargaining chip." But in exchange for what?

Afghan govt wants intra-Afghan talks, lasting ceasefire, before releasing them all.

But are prisoners sufficient leverage, by themselves? Do Taliban think they are dealing with Kabul, alone? /7

Do we have evidence of negotiation leverage that Taliban DOES respond to?

Taliban's sudden Eid ceasefire?
Group avoided reducing violence since Eid 2018... until February. Why change in Feb, or now?

Seems likely a result of US pressure, what the US can offer (or take away).
/8

This DOES NOT mean Taliban don't care about prisoners (they do, but that is a diff thread), or that prisoners cannot help improve Afghan govt position.

Indeed, though details aren't public, I imagine US pressure sounded like: "bit of ceasefire in exchange for some prisoners".
/9

Contrary to concerns that Afghan govt is taking a big risk in this latest prisoner release, I see it as a very savvy move: directly linking prisoner release to more reduced violence.

"If you truly want more X, then give us more Y. See? It works."
/END https://twitter.com/AhmadShuja/status/1265198168242880518?s=20