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THREAD: On Taliban Prisoners as Leverage in Negotiations.
Many people, including experienced scholars & high-ranking officials, are discussing Taliban prisoners as if they are a significant or even primary source of the Afghan government& #39;s leverage. This is mistaken. /1 https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1265719794206232576">https://twitter.com/RFERL/sta...
Many people, including experienced scholars & high-ranking officials, are discussing Taliban prisoners as if they are a significant or even primary source of the Afghan government& #39;s leverage. This is mistaken. /1 https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1265719794206232576">https://twitter.com/RFERL/sta...
As NYT report on Taliban ( @MujMash @Taimoornyt @jimhuylebroek) reminds us, US & Afghan militaries have killed (at minimum) tens of thousands of the militant group& #39;s fighters in past decade. Taliban still have tens of thousands fighting, today. /2 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/world/asia/taliban-afghanistan-war.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/2...
Military perspective: even if released Talibs return to the fight, it is not clear additional 5000 fighters would be a decisive advantage. War involves over 200,000 combatants.
Plus, in 2019 Afg govt had no problem releasing hundreds of Talibs for nothing in return. /3
Plus, in 2019 Afg govt had no problem releasing hundreds of Talibs for nothing in return. /3
Negotiations perspective: in negotiation, power should be thought of as how *little* one party needs what the other is offering ... or how little leaving the table would hurt them.
Very simplistically: if a party has great alternatives to negotiating, they are strong. /4
Very simplistically: if a party has great alternatives to negotiating, they are strong. /4
An honest appraisal of power/ leverage for both parties in #AfghanPeaceProcess looks like this:
Taliban: violence, and/or threat of it
Afghan govt:
-majority of Afghans support core govt institutions
-support of intl community
-enforcement "muscle" of US military... for now
/5
Taliban: violence, and/or threat of it
Afghan govt:
-majority of Afghans support core govt institutions
-support of intl community
-enforcement "muscle" of US military... for now
/5
And prisoners?
Prisoners are like one good hand of cards in an all-night poker game. They may win points, but once played, value is gone. They don& #39;t help win the entire night.
In a card game, real leverage would be getting good cards every time, or playing with more money. /6
Prisoners are like one good hand of cards in an all-night poker game. They may win points, but once played, value is gone. They don& #39;t help win the entire night.
In a card game, real leverage would be getting good cards every time, or playing with more money. /6
Many refer to prisoners as "major bargaining chip." But in exchange for what?
Afghan govt wants intra-Afghan talks, lasting ceasefire, before releasing them all.
But are prisoners sufficient leverage, by themselves? Do Taliban think they are dealing with Kabul, alone? /7
Afghan govt wants intra-Afghan talks, lasting ceasefire, before releasing them all.
But are prisoners sufficient leverage, by themselves? Do Taliban think they are dealing with Kabul, alone? /7
Do we have evidence of negotiation leverage that Taliban DOES respond to?
Taliban& #39;s sudden Eid ceasefire?
Group avoided reducing violence since Eid 2018... until February. Why change in Feb, or now?
Seems likely a result of US pressure, what the US can offer (or take away).
/8
Taliban& #39;s sudden Eid ceasefire?
Group avoided reducing violence since Eid 2018... until February. Why change in Feb, or now?
Seems likely a result of US pressure, what the US can offer (or take away).
/8
This DOES NOT mean Taliban don& #39;t care about prisoners (they do, but that is a diff thread), or that prisoners cannot help improve Afghan govt position.
Indeed, though details aren& #39;t public, I imagine US pressure sounded like: "bit of ceasefire in exchange for some prisoners".
/9
Indeed, though details aren& #39;t public, I imagine US pressure sounded like: "bit of ceasefire in exchange for some prisoners".
/9
Contrary to concerns that Afghan govt is taking a big risk in this latest prisoner release, I see it as a very savvy move: directly linking prisoner release to more reduced violence.
"If you truly want more X, then give us more Y. See? It works."
/END https://twitter.com/AhmadShuja/status/1265198168242880518?s=20">https://twitter.com/AhmadShuj...
"If you truly want more X, then give us more Y. See? It works."
/END https://twitter.com/AhmadShuja/status/1265198168242880518?s=20">https://twitter.com/AhmadShuj...
