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NEWS: Earlier this month, pollster Stan Greenberg briefed Biden's inner circle on 2 battleground polls.
The slide presentation, obtained by POLITICO, made a blunt conclusion on the best VP choice for November:
“Senator Warren is the obvious solution" https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/28/famed-democratic-pollster-pushing-biden-pick-warren-for-vp-285659
The slide presentation, obtained by POLITICO, made a blunt conclusion on the best VP choice for November:
“Senator Warren is the obvious solution" https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/28/famed-democratic-pollster-pushing-biden-pick-warren-for-vp-285659
Greenberg's surveys found that Biden is even behind where Hillary was w/ Bernie voters w/ over well 20% saying they don't plan to vote for Biden.
(Greenberg's 2016 survey had 15% of Bernie voters not supporting Hillary, and that also was bad/arguably cost her the election)
(Greenberg's 2016 survey had 15% of Bernie voters not supporting Hillary, and that also was bad/arguably cost her the election)
“They lean towards the Democrats, but Biden’s not getting their votes yet,” Greenberg told me. “Above all else, [the Democratic Party] needs consolidation. That’s where the overwhelming percentage of votes are.”
He says his surveys show Warren is the best VP choice to do that
He says his surveys show Warren is the best VP choice to do that
The Biden camp has signaled they know they have a problem on their left flank. While most nominees drive center, Biden has been going to the left as @MarcACaputo captured early.
Since then, they've created the "unity" policy task forces w/ Bernie too. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/09/biden-progressives-sanders-178073
Since then, they've created the "unity" policy task forces w/ Bernie too. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/09/biden-progressives-sanders-178073
In his presentation, which was titled "The obvious solution," Greenberg wrote:
“The biggest threat to Democrats in 2020 is the lack of support and disengagement of millennials and the fragmentation of non-Biden primary voters.”
“The biggest threat to Democrats in 2020 is the lack of support and disengagement of millennials and the fragmentation of non-Biden primary voters.”
Underlying Greenberg's case for Warren is a more provocative analysis that Trump is driving the GOP into the ground and the Dems are poised to win big this Nov. as long as the party is united, which is the central thesis of his recent book RIP GOP.
“The year 2020 will produce a second blue wave on at least the scale of the first in 2018 and finally will crash and shatter the Republican Party that was consumed by the ill-begotten battle to stop the New America from governing,” Greenberg wrote in his book.
Greenberg isn't exactly a lefty.
Pollster to Bill Clinton and Tony Blair.
His study of white working class voters in Michigan popularized the term "Reagan Democrat"
He's longtime partners w/ James Carville
Pollster to Bill Clinton and Tony Blair.
His study of white working class voters in Michigan popularized the term "Reagan Democrat"
He's longtime partners w/ James Carville
He's long been critical of Dems for "not showing they would prioritize citizens over non-citizens" as he puts it
Hillary recounted in What Happened:
“Stan also thought my campaign was too upbeat on the economy, too liberal on immigration, and not vocal enough about trade”
Hillary recounted in What Happened:
“Stan also thought my campaign was too upbeat on the economy, too liberal on immigration, and not vocal enough about trade”
Didn't make the piece but Greenberg's account of 2016's final weeks in RIP GOP is 
"Bill Clinton told Carville that the campaign, maddeningly, believed Hillary 'couldn’t win the economy,' and Podesta told me, 'Mook believes we got nothing for all that time on the economy'"
"Bill Clinton told Carville that the campaign, maddeningly, believed Hillary 'couldn’t win the economy,' and Podesta told me, 'Mook believes we got nothing for all that time on the economy'"
On the Veepstakes. Amy, Kamala, and Warren all have an edge b/c they ran before.
Obama said privately in '08: “There’s not going to be a lot of time to adjust...I'm afraid that if someone is experiencing this whole, crazy circus for the first time, it would be too much to ask.”
Obama said privately in '08: “There’s not going to be a lot of time to adjust...I'm afraid that if someone is experiencing this whole, crazy circus for the first time, it would be too much to ask.”
While the details of the pitchdeck are new, it was @jmartNYT and @alexburnsNYT who first reported that Greenberg had briefed Biden's inner circle and had been bullish on Warren in this great story from earlier this month. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/us/politics/joe-biden-vice-president-pick.html
One other bit. Our POLITICO/Morning Consult survey this week showed Warren polling better among black and Hispanic voters than any other veep contender.
One snapshot and a person's #'s could change after someone is picked but was noteworthy.
https://morningconsult.com/2020/05/27/biden-warren-vice-president-poll/
One snapshot and a person's #'s could change after someone is picked but was noteworthy.
https://morningconsult.com/2020/05/27/biden-warren-vice-president-poll/
