Awhile back I tweeted that China would use the pandemic not as an opportunity to start wars but to consolidate its territories and some contentious areas in its near abroad. Between the standoff in the Himalayas, HK, and the SCS, I'd like to review how they're performing.

Let's start with India: China's rapid deployment of some 10k troops 3 km beyond previous claims into the Galwan River valley is both impressive and concerning. India's failure to quickly respond suggests that China has already won this round...

India does not yet have the infrastructure or political will to push back, massive escalation is just not in the cards. We might see some attempt at face saving but right now I don't see anything but a Chinese victory here. Don't expect next time to be so easy though.

Next, we have HK. HK might become a rallying point for those in the West still on the fence about Beijing. Watching another Tiananmen break out in the former intersection of East and West will have a psychological impact.

But I fear whatever we do in response will not be enough.

Sanctions will hurt a few but I think we have hit the point of no return where money no longer matters as much as nationalist furor. That's not a great long term plan for Xi but it works in a time of COVID. Lack of coordinated western response will help soften the blows as well.

As far as territory consolidation goes, HK is and will be a success for Beijing. Unfortunately.

The long term political ramifications in the Indo-Pacific will hurt Beijing significantly. Beijing is so paranoid and arrogant they fail to see that they're making their own monsters.

Finally, we have the SCS. Relative to India and HK, it's not been as active BUT their actions in the SCS continue to invite bigger response from the US and allies.

It will be interesting to see how much action the SCS gets during the HK crackdown. For now, it remains a stalemate

In summary, the Galwan Valley is a win for Beijing. HK is a mixed bag bc this is always how it would end but with everything else it makes it worse for Beijing. And the SCS remains unchanged.

Beijing is drawing battle lines across the continent, so where do they go next?