News $AMD is moving *this year* to TSMC 5nm process with Zen 3 chips. Mind-boggling, and coming from a reputable source. Processes are delayed, not accelerated. Node changes take years, AMD is always conservative, a couple years behind. Not this time? https://twitter.com/chiakokhua/status/1265956411755790336
What does this mean? First, Zen 3 would miss holiday sales. That's the upfront pain. The Zen 2 "refresh" XT chips, which have decent clock bumps would have to last. How much does this matter seeing as AMD has been pretty much supply constrained for this year? Don't know.
So Zen 3 doesn't come out with actual availability until early 2021, but when it *does* come out, it will have a new architecture with an IPC leap *plus* a new node. $AMD currently competitive on every level with $INTC Intel with current architecture and node.
Will 5nm come with increased performance, or just better power? Well, AMD already taking share in desktop hand over fist. Enthusiast DIY market almost sewn up. What really matters is laptops. I'm leaving servers out b/c those might still be on 7nm? No idea.
There was a rumor that next gen $AMD laptop chips would be on 5nm, so again, new architecture new node. Again, current $AMD laptop chips, surprisingly, are the power/perf winners. Even with a delay in release, current $AMD chips are good enough until early/mid next year. Then...
Intel $INTC will need a miracle, b/c in laptops where power is restricted $AMD will have such a crushing advantage for at least a year that whatever OEMs don't put AMD chips in their laptops will lose major share to OEMs that do. They will have to design for AMD. IMO.
Summary: possible drop in revenue in Q4 2020. And then dominance in 2021. But in Q4 '20 the new consoles are out, $AMD providing the APUs for both Xbox and Playstation. Also, more laptop designs with $AMD 4000 series chips in them, b/c industry wasn't ready for how good they are.
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