A high-amplitude convectively coupled Kelvin wave will be passing the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basin in the coming week. These waves can spawn tropical cyclones/gyres after the passage of a high amplitude event. This CCKW spawned Super Cyclone #Amphan back on May 16.

Models are showing an explosion on -VP200 anomalies (anomalous divergence aloft) o/Central America this weekend. This is the model's prediction of the formation of what is known as a tropical gyre. CA tropical gyres can spawn tropical cyclones o/the Pacific and/or Gulf of Mexico.

Sometimes models will struggle if tropical cyclogenesis will take place over the eastern Pacific, or over the Gulf of Mexico, or western Caribbean, as smaller vortices often cyclonically rotate within the tropical gyre and one or multiple vortices develop into tropical cyclones.

I've been skeptical of the GFS solution of the Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone during early June but over the course of 48 hours, there has been a trend in the ECMWF towards such a scenario. Following the CCKW passage, a large tropical gyre develops and a TC spawns o/the GoMEX.

If a tropical cyclone develops, Gulf of Mexico (GoMEX) residents will need to pay attention. Luckily it's still early so sea-surface temperatures are not boiling hot in the GoMEX right now so that will limit the maximum potential intensity of this possible tropical cyclone.

The 500mb geopotential height anomaly pattern during the time potential genesis shows a ridge over the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This could slow down the forward progression of the developing tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico.

It's still early and things can change in the forecast but as of now, I'm a bit more interested in this potential genesis case. Tropical gyres are difficult and messy and the models will certainly have errors. But it's something a bit more credible in my mind.

Also - just noticed the Mr. Tropical Gyre himself, @pppapin is already all over this gyre genesis case! https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1265764441242521600