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Hopefully the players and owners come to an agreement, and we have a baseball season. But most of the commentary I& #39;m reading (owners evil, players good) misses the point IMO.
It& #39;s like that scene from The Wire where Marlo steals from a convenience store in plain view of the security guard who knows he can& #39;t mess with him and just asks for basic respect, and Marlo says, you wish it were one way, but it& #39;s the other way.
The owners DGAF. When profits and franchise values soar, they feel no obligation to cut players in, and now that profits might shrink they want to share the pain. It& #39;s unfair, but while they might wish it were one way, it& #39;s the other way.
Maybe the owners are bluffing, and the players actually can force them to cough up pro-rated salaries with some small amount deferred if the owners show via their books that they& #39;re losing money. But I& #39;m dubious.
Both that the owners would open their books and that they& #39;ll move that far from their terrible opening offer. So the players -- who have more to gain from playing and to lose from sitting out -- are in a tough spot.
It& #39;s even possible the owners really will lose money -- or simply make very little -- if they play without fans, and in that case, they don& #39;t have a huge incentive to play a partial season anyway.
So what can the players do? They can cave and let Marlo walk about with the stuff. Or they can quit that job and figure out something else.
I floated the possibility in a thread last week and got some pushback: "They& #39;d never make the money they made before," "No one would risk injury for a start-up league," "People are loyal only to the franchise brands," etc.
All valid, but if the owners are serious about their initial offer, the players would already be taken a massive pay cut and still be employees rather than owners.
Second, whenever you quit your high-paying job for a shitty boss to go out on your own, you& #39;re gonna take a massive pay cut at first. That doesn& #39;t mean it& #39;s a bad call or that you won& #39;t get paid eventually.
Third, there are countless examples in history where someone had to say no to a shit deal and take a risk. The founding of the US is one, and the consequences (war with the world& #39;s strongest army) were slightly more dire than what the players would face.
Fourth, there will never be a better opportunity than now because empty stands make the logistics of launching a new league way easier. You just need a decent field, not an arena capable of holding 35K fans.
The owners are simply not necessary for the game anymore. They are middlemen between the product (players) and the fans.
Of course, the owners would pull out all the stops to crush this kind of effort, so the players would need to remain united, believe in the cause, etc. You& #39;d need leaders and be highly organized. But the timing is right, and the impetus is there.
