One of the reasons why Cummings scandal not dying down is MPs know once Cummings knows which MPs spoke out against him he will attempt to destroy them.

In this sense the struggle dynamics resemble a coup against a leader more than say a scandal-ridden minister being picked off.
2/

In this context even if Dominic Cummings survives this scandal it will merely be the 1st hit in a war.

Cummings will attempt to crush all those that tried to topple him - the situation will be like Thatcher after the first leadership challenge - a cold truce at best.
3/

People confused that so many pro Brexit Tory MPs are trying to force Cummings out need to understand...

For Boris Johnson - Cummings is a tool to obtain & keep power.

For pro Brexit MPs - Cummings was a tool merely to get Brexit.

The two things are not the same.
4/

Even if Cummings survives this - a man never trusts those he’s cheated.

Cabinet will have to be stuffed now with Cummings loyalists as the sane end of the Conservative party waits for a chance to force Johnson’s hand.

To get rid of Cummings will now mean to lose Johnson.
5/

Just 2 months ago the idea of deposing Johnson would have been absurd - now less so.

The smarter MPs will now be happy to let Johnson “own” Coronavirus & perhaps even Brexit - but I now no longer think Johnson will stay till 2024.

He cannot win a Cummings civil war..
6/

Johnson is the way MPs got power in 2019 but as soon as he becomes a liability - which seems to be already happening) the Cummings debacle ensures all loyalty gone - he knows this.

It’s now a war of attrition & plots.

The Tory leadership campaign has begun.

/Ends
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