I want there to be a different outcome for Hong Kong, but the reality is that UK doesn’t have the power to challenge this- even with the US onside.

Timing is important- covid, Brexit, Trump
Poor credibility is also key- Trump pre-covid, US & UK handling of covid
/1 https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1265909629067972609

If Britain, US, EU hadn’t gone through an internal combustion process since 2016, it would have taken longer to get here.

Maybe HK would have had an extra decade. But this transition was always inevitable given China’s rise to superpower status. (And decline)
/2

But also:
What happened with HK during the Opium Wars is widely viewed as a national humiliation by the Chinese.
It has never been forgotten.
Tearing up the 1997 deal wipes the slate clean.

This isn’t just about HK.
It’s about China restoring its own self-esteem.
/3

The signs were there:
Acid test was Xinjiang + Uighurs. China has successfully silenced every country that dares to speak on this. Including Western nations.

The West’s failure to pushback signalled that China’s could do as it wished on its own territory. Without sanction.
/4

There are four ‘internal’ problem zones for China- Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet, and Taiwan.

Tibet was pacified. Brutally, and now through assimilation.
Xinjiang is going through the same.
HK was tougher because of and traditions.
Taiwan is next

/5